Tom welcomes economist John Williams, the founder of Shadow Government Statistics to the show. Williams shares his background in economics and economic modeling, which led him to scrutinize government statistics due to their potential inaccuracies. …
Tom welcomes economist John Williams, the founder of Shadow Government Statistics to the show. Williams shares his background in economics and economic modeling, which led him to scrutinize government statistics due to their potential inaccuracies. He became particularly concerned with employment data revisions and manipulation. Despite improvements, he remains skeptical about inconsistencies' impact on forecasting accuracy.
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Williams discusses the misrepresentation of inflation through changes in reporting methodologies, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This underreporting of inflation affects cost-of-living adjustments and pension payouts, leaving retirees facing significant financial challenges. The pandemic exacerbated these issues with distorted CPI reporting.
He also criticizes the current economic situation's representation through GDP growth rates, which may not accurately represent underlying economic conditions. Inflation can lead to an increase in reported real GDP without actual sales growth. The excessive money supply injected into the economy during the pandemic is another major contributor to inflation.
Despite attempts to control inflation through interest rate hikes, the economy has suffered negative growth in critical sectors like retail sales, industrial production, housing, and employment. The Federal Reserve prioritizes the banking system over the economy, making high interest rates more beneficial for banks than for consumers. The historically large disparity between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI) further highlights a weak economy.
John predicts that despite rising GDP, there is a potential worsening in the next six months with underlying economic downturn and potential high or ev..
