Overcoming Bias

View the transcript for this episode here: https://mindsalmostmeeting.com/episodes/the-sacred

Imagine two smart curious friendly and basically truth-seeking people, but from very different intellectual traditions. Traditions with different tools, priorities, and ground rules. What would they discuss? Would they talk past each other? Make any progress? Would anyone want to hear them? Economist Robin Hanson and philosopher Agnes Callard decided to find out.

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Half of the universe is filled with expansionist alien civilizations, and it’s only a matter of time before they’ll reach us. OK, that sounded a little sensationalist. But it’s also the conclusion of a recent astrophysics paper. Let’s see how they figure this, and whether we should take it seriously.

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This video was recorded at the Foresight Crypto, Security & AI Workshop,
October 4-5 @50 Years in San Francisco.

Robin Hanson, George Mason University
Deflecting The Sacred

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Robin Hanson is a professor at George Mason University and researcher at Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford. He has a doctorate in social science from California Institute of Technology, master's degrees in physics and philosophy from the University of Chicago, and nine years experience as a research programmer, at Lockheed and NASA.

Robin's Links:
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Robin's Website: https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson
Grabby Aliens: https://grabbyaliens.com/paper
The Elephant in the Brain: https://www.amazon.com/dp/0197551955
The Age of Em: https://www.amazon.com/dp/0198817827

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Outline
0:00 - Introduction
5:04 - When will machines rule the world?
14:03 - Brain emulations & Westworld
32:40 - Are we in a simulation?
45:24 - The Great Filter
50:48 - Grabby Aliens
1:17:53 - Panspermia
1:23:20 - UFO's
1:49:50 - Rot of world government
2:02:09 - Cryonics
2:16:24 - Individualism & the future of human civilization
2:32:00 - Wealth VS fertility & raising children

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Robin Hanson is a professor at George Mason University and researcher at Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:
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Robin's Website: https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson
Grabby Aliens (paper): https://grabbyaliens.com/paper
The Elephant in the Brain (book): https://amazon.com/dp/0197551955/ref=nosim?tag=turingmachi08-20
The Age of Em (book): https://amazon.com/dp/0198817827/ref=nosim?tag=turingmachi08-20

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OUTLINE:
0:00 - Introduction
1:52 - Grabby aliens
39:36 - War and competition
45:10 - Global government
58:01 - Humanity's future
1:08:02 - Hello aliens
1:35:06 - UFO sightings
1:59:43 - Conspiracy theories
2:08:01 - Elephant in the brain
2:21:32 - Medicine
2:34:01 - Institutions
3:00:54 - Physics
3:05:46 - Artificial intelligence
3:23:35 - Economics
3:26:56 - Political science
3:32:45 - Advice for young people
3:41:36 - Darkest moments
3:44:37 - Love and loss
3:53:59 - Immortality
3:57:56 - Simulation hypothesis
4:08:13 - Meaning of life

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Do aliens exist?

Robin Hanson has developed a mathematical model called "Grabby Aliens" that not just predicts that they exist also suggests that they're rapidly expanding in the universe.

Robin is an associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. Personally, I’m a fan of his book “The Elephant in the Brain”; it had a major impact on how I view the world.

What Robin says in this episode is both provocative and grounded in logic.

== What we talk about ==
0:00 - Introduction
1:10 - What made you interested in aliens?
1:44 - What is the Fermi paradox and what is its relation with the Great Filter?
5:45 - Thinking about the future is the same as thinking about the aliens
7:09 - How does the Great Filter lead to the model of Grabby Aliens
15:48 - The Grabby Aliens model
25:13 - When can we expect to meet the aliens as per your model?
30:19 - What might be some of the observations/evidence that, if found, will decrease confidence in your model?
32:32 - What if the Grabby Aliens encounter conflicts with each other during expansion?
41:43 - Why competition is a good thing
45:29 - What are your views on the work SETI is doing?
48:04 - Why do you think that finding alien civilizations or UFOs is a matter of concern for us?
1:02:07 - Did your research findings change your worldview?
1:05:34 - With all the technological advancements we are making, is there any tiny chance that we might be able to see the Grabby Aliens in the near future?

== Useful links ==
Grabby Aliens: https://grabbyaliens.com/
Robin's blog: https://www.overcomingbias.com/

== Social media ==
Robin's Twitter: https://twitter.com/robinhanson
Paras Chopra's Twitter: https://twitter.com/paraschopra

== Credits ==
Sachin Vats​​​​​ for editing: https://twitter.com/sachinvats97
Rishabh Jain​​ for assisting: https://twitter.com/Akhandgareeb

Prediction markets enable you to bet on the outcomes of real-world events by buying shares for those outcomes. Share prices can be interpreted as the probability that the underlying event will happen, therefore they provide an aggregate measure of what the market's participants believe. Prediction markets have been found to provide very accurate probabilities, and there have been interesting proposals to use them for improving institutional decision-making. In this video, we'll explore all of this and more. Examples of prediction platforms are: Augur and Polymarket (on the Ethereum blockchain), predictIt, the FTX crypto exchange, and Metaculus.

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▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀LINKS & READINGS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀

Wikipedia on prediction markets (it's pretty good): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market

Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases, by David Rothschild: https://www.jstor.org/stable/40467652

Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs? (by Robin Hanson): http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/futarchy.pdf

Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs (by Robin Hanson): https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/futarchy.html

Augur: https://augur.net/

Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/

PredictIt: https://www.predictit.org/

FTX: https://ft-x.info/

ElectionBettingOdds: https://electionbettingodds.com/

Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/

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Script by:
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Narration by Robert Miles: https://www.youtube.com/c/RobertMilesAI

In the previous video, we talked about why humanity seems to have appeared very early in the universe: among the first civilizations that could ever appear. Earliness constitutes a riddle. It makes humanity’s situation seem rather mysterious. Robin Hanson, who introduced the idea of the great filter, solves this riddle by postulating that civilizations that he calls “grabby” will soon fill the universe. As anticipated, grabby aliens are the main assumption of a detailed model describing how such aliens expand and distribute in the universe. The model makes many interesting predictions, such as when we’ll meet grabby aliens, our chances of hearing alien messages, and becoming an interplanetary civilization ourselves. It also answers why we don’t see aliens yet, considering the universe’s large number of stars and galaxies. These predictions are the topic of this video.

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▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOURCES & READINGS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀

Robin Hanson's paper on Grabby Aliens: https://grabbyaliens.com/paper

Grabby Aliens website: https://grabbyaliens.com/

The Great Filter - Are We Almost Past It? https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/greatfilter.html

The Grabby Aliens Model — 3D Sim, by Daniel Martin: https://youtu.be/oLvzFJLLfCY

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▀▀▀▀▀▀▀MUSIC ATTRIBUTION▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀

Dreams Become Real by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/...
Source: http://incompetech.com/music/royalty-...
Artist: http://incompetech.com/

There's Probably No Time by Chris Zabriskie is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Source: http://chriszabriskie.com/uvp/
Artist: http://chriszabriskie.com/

▀▀▀▀▀▀▀NARRATION▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀

Narration by Robert Miles: https://www.youtube.com/c/RobertMilesAI

▀▀▀▀▀▀▀CHAPTERS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀

Chapters:

0:00 - Introduction
1:50 - 3D simulation
2:48 - The power law
4:20 - Estimating "k"
5:03 - Estimating "n"
5:37 - Estimating "s"
9:52 - Model predictions
15:02 - SETI and our chance of becoming grabby
18:15 - Wrapping up
19:16 - Patreon & channel membership

Considering the hurdles that simple dead matter has to go through before becoming an advanced civilization and that there might be habitable planets lasting trillions of years, humanity looks incredibly early. Very suspiciously so. Robin Hanson, who first came up with the great filter in 1996, offers a compelling explanation: grabby aliens. They are defined as civilizations that 1. expand from their origin planet at a fraction of the speed of light, 2. make significant and visible changes wherever they go, and 3. Last a very long time. Such aliens explain human earliness because they set a deadline for other civilizations to appear. Non-grabby civilizations like ours can only appear early because later, every habitable planet will be taken. This is a selection effect. Plus, grabby civilizations are plausible for many other reasons: life on Earth, and humans, look grabby in many ways. Species, cultures, and organizations tend to expand in new niches and territories when possible, and they tend to modify their environment significantly. In the video, we also delve into the plausibility of space travel. As always, you can support us on:

🟠 Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rationalanimations

🟤 Ko-fi: https://ko-fi.com/rationalanimations

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/RationalAnimat1

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Sources and further readings:

Robin Hanson's paper on Grabby Aliens - updated since the one shown in the video: https://grabbyaliens.com/paper

Grabby Aliens website: https://grabbyaliens.com/

The Great Filter - Are We Almost Past It? https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/greatfilter.html
Note that the date is 1998, not 1996. According to Wikipedia, 1996 is the date of the first version of the paper.

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BIG thanks to our patrons:

Francisco Lillo
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Raphaël Lévy

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Music attribution

Dreams Become Real by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Source: http://incompetech.com/music/royalty-free/index.html?isrc=USUAN1500027

Artist: http://incompetech.com/

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Narration by Robert Miles: https://www.youtube.com/c/RobertMilesAI

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Chapters:

0:00 - Overview
1:05 - The question behind the model
1:16 - The hard-steps model
3:16 - Estimating human earliness
6:53 - Grabby aliens explain human earliness
9:17 - Other reasons why grabby aliens are plausible
12:15 - Next video
12:22 - Become a patron!

November 18th, 2020

Today ordinary folks are rarely sued, except re auto accidents; we require liability insurance there. If everyone had a “voucher” who insured all their legal liability, we could avoid many difficult collective judgments on privacy, freedom, cruelty, dignity, and sharing of responsibility. All (but one) crime could be officially punished via fines, and long-term voucher-client contracts could specify (and pay for) additional punishments (including fines, jail, torture, or exile), limits on freedoms like travel bans, curfews, call monitoring, and ankle-bracelets, and co-liability wherein a team agrees to all be punished if any one of them is found guilty. Bounty hunters could investigate and prosecute cases.

Why are the YouTube comments disabled? Answer: https://thestoa.substack.com/p/stoic-punk-or-why-you-should-stop

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To improve your thinking and learning skills, visit https://brilliant.org/ali and sign up for free. The first 200 people will get 20% off the annual Premium subscription :)

In this episode of book club we're looking at The Elephant in the Brain by Kevin Simler and Robin Hanson which shines a light on the hidden motives of everyday life. We look at the theory behind the elephant, why we all secretly hide our true motives and how these motives play out in everyday life.

📚 The Elephant in the Brain - https://geni.us/elephante

Timestamps

00:00 Intro
00:52 The Elephant in the Brain Thesis
02:10 Why We Hide Our True Motives
07:46 The Hidden Motives of Everyday Life

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📕Book Club Episode 1 - What Makes People Successful? - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGbCR...
📚The Unfair Advantage by Ash Ali and Hasan Kubba - https://geni.us/e83Ll

📘Book Club Episode 2 - Tiny Changes Remarkable Results - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YT7tQ...
📚Atomic Habits by James Clear - https://geni.us/atomichabitsbook

📙Book Club Episode 3 - My Favourite Productivity Book - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NBhJ...
📚Make Time by Jake Knapp and John Zeratsky - https://geni.us/vzDlPbD

📗 Book Club Episode 4 - Why Motivation is a Myth - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzAuv...
📚 The Motivation Myth by Jeff Haden - https://geni.us/ozAf

📘Book Club Episode 5 - Grit - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NquuITL9-ZA
📚 Grit by Angela Duckworth - https://geni.us/gXqfuf7

📕Book Club Episode 6 - The Happiness Advantage - https://youtu.be/B58mAePXYbo
📚 The Happiness Advantage - https://geni.us/9MIFf

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Most ancient societies used simple A-sues-B-for-cash legal systems to deal with most harms. But in the last few centuries, states added “crime law”, wherein the state investigates, sues, and imprisons “criminals.” These centrally-run one-size-fits-all bureaucratic systems don’t innovate well nor adapt well to individual conditions. And even though most of your “constitutional rights” are regarding such systems, they still seem badly broken.

In the ancient world, a stranger who came to town was trusted more if a local “vouched” for them. We still use vouching today in bonded contractors, in organized crime, and in requiring most everyone to get an insurer who pays on their behalf if they cause a car accident. I propose requiring everyone to get an insurer to vouch for them regarding any crimes they might commit. If you are found guilty of a crime, your “voucher” pays the state a fine, and then pays to punish you according to your contract with them. This fine in part pays the private bounty-hunter who convinced the court of your guilt. Competing bounty-hunters obey law because they can’t maintain a blue-wall-of-silence.

To lower your voucher premiums, you might agree to (1) prison, torture, or exile, if caught, (2) prior limits on your freedom like curfews, ankle bracelets, and their reading your emails, and (3) co-liability wherein you and your buddies are all punished if any one of you is found guilty. In this system, the state still decides what behaviors are crimes and if any one accusation is true, and it sets fine and bounty levels regarding how hard to discourage and detect each kind of crime. But each person chooses their own “constitutional rights”, and vouchers acquire incentives and opportunity to innovate and adapt, by searching in a large space of ways to discourage crime.

#hcpp19 #optout #paralelnipolis #instituteofcryptoanarchy

Meet the "ems" -- machines that emulate human brains and can think, feel and work just like the brains they're copied from. Economist and social scientist Robin Hanson describes a possible future when ems take over the global economy, running on superfast computers and copying themselves to multitask, leaving humans with only one choice: to retire, forever. Glimpse a strange future as Hanson describes what could happen if robots ruled the earth.

The TED Talks channel features the best talks and performances from the TED Conference, where the world's leading thinkers and doers give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes (or less). Look for talks on Technology, Entertainment and Design -- plus science, business, global issues, the arts and more.

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Your brain is hiding your real motives from you. Prof. Robin Hanson explains how we evolved to deceive ourselves about politics, education, medicine, and even laughter.

SUBSCRIBE: http://bit.ly/2dUx6wg

LEARN MORE:
The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life (book): If you enjoyed this lecture and want to learn more about our unconscious motives, check out Prof. Hanson’s book. https://www.amazon.com/Elephant-Brain-Hidden-Motives-Everyday/dp/0190495995
Myth of the Rational Voter (lecture): Prof. Bryan Caplan discusses his book Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Policies and explains the four biases voters have when it comes to economic policy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKANfuq_92U
Why Are Voters So Uninformed? (video): Prof. Diana Thomas explains why it’s actually rational for voters to be uninformed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwPGzkui8ow

TRANSCRIPT:
For a full transcript please visit: http://www.learnliberty.org/videos/lecture-the-elep…in-everyday-life/

LEARN LIBERTY:
Your resource for exploring the ideas of a free society. We tackle big questions about what makes a society free or prosperous and how we can improve the world we live in. Watch more at http://www.learnliberty.org/.

We humans are primates, and primates are political animals. Our brains are designed not just to hunt and gather, but also to get ahead socially, often by devious means.

Understanding hidden motives in everyday life can dramatically change how we view social familiar institutions such as education, medicine, politics and religion.

Dr. Hanson is an Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University, and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. He has a doctorate in social science from California Institute of Technology, master's degrees in physics and philosophy from the University of Chicago, and nine years experience as a research programmer at Lockheed and NASA.

He says that we need social institutions to pretend to give us what we pretend we want, while giving us what we need.

He is the author of "The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth" and co-author of "The Elephant in the Brain."

This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at https://www.ted.com/tedx

Support the show, consider donating: 39c9iyKAAssTZLbdtPRBQLEaDct7h9v17s (http://bit.ly/1NRFydR)

When Robin Hanson invented the concept of prediction markets almost thirty years ago, he felt he had stumbled on a concept with huge implications. By allowing people to bet on the likelihood of future events, prediction markets promise to allow better forecasts and better decision making.

Research into the area has been vibrant, culminating in Hanson's concept of Futarchy: A prediction-market based governance system. At the same time, the real-world applications have been few and far.

Hanson, an associate professor of economics at George Mason University, joined us to discuss his invention, futarchy and the challenges of disruptive technology.

Topics covered included:
- How prediction markets can surface information
- The history of prediction markets
- How futarchy works
- Whether futarchy could settle the blocksize debate
- Why prediction markets failed to get wide adoption
- How Bitcoin is facing a similar adoption challenge

Links mentioned in this episode:

- Science 'The Promise of Prediction Markets' http://bit.ly/1PJ2bAn (PDF)
- Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs http://bit.ly/1KFhx7v
- Robin Hanson's Blog Overcoming Bias http://bit.ly/1KFhwAx

Sponsors:

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Show notes: http://epicenterbitcoin.com/podcast/098
SoundCloud: http://soundcloud.com/epicenterbitcoin/eb-098

Epicenter Bitcoin is hosted by Brian Fabian Crain & Sébastien Couture.

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This talk was given at a local TEDx event, produced independently of the TED Conferences. "The earth is flat”. “Home computers are useless”. “Humanity is condemned to be starved”. “Women are born inferior”. Throughout the years, pioneering scientific discoveries overturn established theories, vibrant societies transcend dominant perceptions, bold individuals expand physical and intellectual limits proving everything wrong: This is the way in which we seek to improve our lives and to deepen the understanding of the world around us. At TEDxLimassol we are searching for the next refute in small and large things: In the universe and subatomic particles. In our societies and in our bodies. In our behavior, attitudes and perceptions. In our mental, physical and personal capabilities. Proving everything wrong is always the right thing to do.
*Where there is doubt, there is freedom.

Robin Hanson is an associate professor of economics at George Mason University, a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University, and chief scientist at Consensus Point. After receiving his Ph.D. in social science from the California Institute of Technology in 1997, Robin was a Robert Wood Johnson Foundation health policy scholar at the University of California at Berkeley. In 1984, Robin received a masters in physics and a masters in the philosophy of science from the University of Chicago, and afterward spent nine years researching artificial intelligence, Bayesian statistics, and hypertext publishing at Lockheed, NASA, and independently.

Robin has over 70 publications, and has pioneered prediction markets since 1988, being a principal architect of the first internal corporate markets, at Xanadu in 1990, of the first web markets, the Foresight Exchange since 1994, of DARPA’s Policy Analysis Market, from 2001 to 2003, and of Daggre/Scicast, since 2010.

About TEDx, x = independently organized event In the spirit of ideas worth spreading, TEDx is a program of local, self-organized events that bring people together to share a TED-like experience. At a TEDx event, TEDTalks video and live speakers combine to spark deep discussion and connection in a small group. These local, self-organized events are branded TEDx, where x = independently organized TED event. The TED Conference provides general guidance for the TEDx program, but individual TEDx events are self-organized.* (*Subject to certain rules and regulations)

Robin Hanson is a Professor of Economics at the George Mason University in the US and a researcher at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University. He is an expert on prediction markets and the social implications of future technologies, e.g. artificial intelligence and nano-technology and their influence on the economy and society. Politically he supports futarchy -- a society where policy decisions are made based on open prediction markets.

Robin has a diverse background: he has a Bachelor's and Master's degree in physics but a PhD in social sciences. Robin has researched the artificial intelligence and Bayesian statistics at NASA and developed a prediction market predicting the political stability, economic growth and military activity of foreign countries for the US Department of Defense. Robin's ideas often cause controversial reactions and he wishes to find ways to more effectively decentralize the government's tasks.

SEE ALSO
http://www.overcomingbias.com/author/...

Robin Hanson on majandusprofessor George Masoni Ülikoolis USAs ja uurija Oxfordi Ülikooli Inimtuleviku Instituudis. Ta on ekspert ennustusturgude alal ning tema eriliseks huviks on tulevikutehnoloogiad, näiteks tehisintellekt ja nanotehnoloogia ning nende mõju majandusele ja ühiskonnale üldisemalt. Oma poliitilistelt vaadetelt toetab ta "futurokraatiat" - ühiskonda, kus poliitilisi otsuseid tehakse avatud ennustusturgude abil.

Robin on väga mitmekülgse taustaga: bakalauruse- ja magistrikraad füüsikas, doktorikraad aga sotsiaalteadustes, ta on NASAs tegelenud tehisintellekti ja Bayesi statistika uurimisega ning välja arendanud USA kaitseministeeriumi jaoks ennustusturu, mis prognoosib riigi poliitilist stabiilsust, majanduskasvu ja sõjalist võimsust. Robini ideed tekitavad tihtipeale vastuolulisi reaktsioone ning ta sooviks on uurida, millise piirini on võimalik valitsuse ülesandeid detsentraliseerida.

UURI LISAKS
http://www.overcomingbias.com/author/...

In the spirit of ideas worth spreading, TEDx is a program of local, self-organized events that bring people together to share a TED-like experience. At a TEDx event, TEDTalks video and live speakers combine to spark deep discussion and connection in a small group. These local, self-organized events are branded TEDx, where x = independently organized TED event. The TED Conference provides general guidance for the TEDx program, but individual TEDx events are self-organized.* (*Subject to certain rules and regulations)

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Created 3 weeks ago.

23 videos

Category Business & Finance

Welcome to Overcoming Bias!
Overcoming Bias began in November ’06 as a group blog on the general theme of how to move our beliefs closer to reality, in the face of our natural biases such as overconfidence and wishful thinking, and our bias to believe we have corrected for such biases, when we have done no such thing.

While we had a few dozen authors, most posts came from Robin Hanson and Eliezer Yudkowsky. The topics drifted more widely, and early in ’09 Eliezer moved to a new sister blog, Less Wrong. Robin then made this his wide-ranging personal blog for the next three years. In ’12, Robin wanted to cut back to make more time to write a book, and so Katja Grace, Rob Wiblin, and Carl Shulman joined as new-co-bloggers. In ’13, Robin decided he’d changed his work habits, and this went back to being a personal blog.

Disclaimers:

While we are affiliated with several organizations, and we list them as “supporting” Overcoming Bias, none have paid us to blog, and none necessarily endorse any views expressed here. We’ve never sold ads or access in any way. Copyright is retained by each author. Finally, all views expressed here are ours, not those of George Mason University or the Commonwealth of Virginia.

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Anyone can comment here, but spam and trollers may be removed or banned. Comments should be polite, on topic, short (< 500 words), and sparing with quotations (links are ok). Don’t repeat your own comments word for word. We have Open Threads once a month for general discussion; longer comments are acceptable there.

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