Financial Survival Network
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Interesting site for you repo watchers: https://repowatch.org
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1. It is still a fragile market. Last week the major stock indexes closed lower again. Today, the NASDAQ is trading higher but the small caps (Russell 2000) are weak. I'm just expecting more whipsaw going forward.
Today is the start of the 4th quarter and everyone will be looking at the payroll report due out on Friday.
2. Energy is pulling back today. Oil is back at $90.00 after chopping around $95.00 last week.
3. Yields are up again this morning. The important 2-year note yield jumped to 5.11% which is a 6 basis point move higher today. Yields hold the cards .
4. The US dollar is back up this morning. The dollar has been soaring since mid july and it is now trading into some resistance here. around the $106.75 area. Should the US Dollar pullback it would likely be a positive for stocks but that has not happened yet.
5. Gold is getting slammed today. The next major support area that I see for gold futures is around the $1820 level. Silver is also getting hammered today as well falling by nearly 4%. The precious metals are a little tricky here with the strong US Dollar in play.
6. Bitcoin is very strong today trading higher by nearly 5% to 28,695. I'm not sure of the catatlyst for today's strength but that is a solid pop. There should be some resistance around the 29,000 level on Bitcoin futures.
Kerry Lutz and Anthony Saccaro discussed the current state of the economy, predicting a possible recession in 2024 and suggesting that investors focus on dividend-paying stocks to protect their portfolios. They emphasized the importance of diversification, dollar-cost averaging, and reinvesting dividends during market downturns to take advantage of lower prices. Saccaro recommended a 60/40 plan with a focus on fixed income investments and warned against chasing high yields without considering the underlying fundamentals of a company.
He also suggested leaving some cash aside for short-term needs and diversifying investments for the short, mid, and long-term. Additionally, Saccaro offered a free book on retirement mistakes for interested viewers.
Visit Anthony's site and get a free copy of his latest book:https://providencefinancialinc.com/
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Kerry Lutz and James Locke discussed the current state of the market and the potential impact of rising interest rates, inflation, and other economic factors on investment strategies. They suggested that dividend-paying stocks and real estate may be good options for investors looking for a defensive posture. They also emphasized the importance of diversification and risk management in investment portfolios.
Additionally, they discussed the impact of low mortgages on reducing inventory and increasing inflation, as well as the possibility of a government shutdown and the need for better fiscal conservatism to curb inflation. Finally, they predicted that rates will not be cut further at the Fed's upcoming meeting, leading to a lower S&P 500 index.
Visit James at PooleLocke.com
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Kerry Lutz and David Wright discussed the recent decision by the Fed to not raise interest rates and its potential impact on the economy. They talked about concerns regarding the banking and financial sector, inflation, and the impact of rising gas prices. Wright suggested that shrinking the balance sheet is the best way to regulate inflation, rather than raising rates, and predicted that rate decreases could occur in September 2024.
They also discussed the impact of the UAW strike and the potential for increased unemployment and demand destruction. Additionally, they discussed tips for investing and saving in uncertain times, with Wright advising investors to focus on the purpose of their money and suggesting short-duration securities, treasuries, and bond-like instruments for income and stability. He also cautioned against chasing high dividends and warned that rate hikes can cut profits.
Visit David at: https://WrightFinancialGroup.com
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1. The major indexes have been very weak and are trying to bounce a little today.
2. The main catalyst for the recent declines are two fold. First, the strong US Dollar Index (DXY) has been surging higher and that puts pressure on many multinational US equities.
Second, it is bond yields. Yesterday, the 2-year note yield traded around 5.15% and the markets did not like that. That is a clear signal that the Fed needs to raise the fed funds rate again at the next meeting. Today, the 2-year yield is backing off trading around 5.07% and this is helping stocks to catch a bid.
3. Oil has pulled back recently, but today it is trading higher again today. I still think it is short term overbought, but it has held up well as of late.
4. Gold has pulled back this week and is trading lower again today. Gold futures are now testing the 1900 level. Should this level break down we could see gold fall to around the $1830 area. That is the next major support area on the charts.
5. Bitcoin is catching a bid today. The popular crypto is trading atround 26,500. That is a 1.3% gain. This still has a bearish weekly pattern in place so be aware of that.
Visit Nick at: https://InTheMoneyStocks.com
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Kerry Lutz and Eddie Yoon discussed various economic issues, including the student loan debt bubble and its impact on the economy, the potential long-term consequences of consumer debt, and the challenges facing the retail industry. They proposed solutions such as capping tuition, tying loan forgiveness to universities, and incentivizing universities to improve student outcomes and productivity. They also suggested that retailers should adapt to changing consumer preferences by following a Costco model and charging customers up front for a better experience. Overall, they emphasized the need for businesses and institutions to adapt to changing times and consumer preferences in order to survive and thrive.
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1. The major indexes sold off last week and are on the weaker side again this morning. The stronger US Dollar Index and higher bond yields are keeping pressure on equities.
2. Today the 10-year note yield is trading around 4.51%. While this affects rates it is still not as important as the 2-year note yield which is trading around 5.12%. If the 2-year yield starts to move into the 5.25 to 5.50% area then that would be problematic for the Fed and would likely secure another rate hike on the horizon. Believe it or not, stocks can trade higher with higher rates, but they will struggle if the inverted yield curve between 2's and 10's gets wider. Should the spread narrow it could be a positive for stocks.
3. Oil is pulling back a little today. Oil is very extended and overbought on the daily and weekly chart. Traders should still keep a cautious stance since we have lots of geopolitical events that can take place right now.
4.Gold is pulling back a little today . The precious metal has been in a long trading range since June. I'll stay neutral right now until we see more of a pattern develop. In defense for gold, it has held up very well despite the price action and strength in the US Dollar.
5. Bitcoin is weak today trading down by 1.27%. I'm expecting bitcoin to decline as the weekly chart pattern is signaling downside.
Matthew Johnson and Kerry Lutz discussed the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates and its impact on the economy. They believe that low interest rates stimulate growth and that corporations are sitting on the sidelines due to high interest rates. They also discussed the possibility of a recession and the Federal Reserve's reluctance to cut rates too early, as well as the telltale signals that indicate a recession is coming.
The group also discussed the challenges of understanding the financial statements of large banks and the need for due diligence in choosing a bank. They emphasized the importance of diversification to manage risk and the potential for government guarantees and printing money to prevent a banking sector collapse.
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1. Today is Fed day. Later at 2pm EST the FOMC will announce its interest rate policy for the United States. They are expected to keep the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50%. Once again, verbiage will be important and can move markets.
2. Bond yields are backing off this morning and that is certainly helping the major stock indexes. Yields have been steadily rising and that is ultimately problematic for the Fed. Today, the 10-year note yield is at 4.33%, down 3 basis points. The more important 2-year yield is at 5.06%, down 5 basis points. Remember, should the 2-year yield start to climb back up into the fed funds rate the fed will have a major problem. At the moment, the fed has some wiggle room and can pause.
3. Oil is down ticking a little today after surging to $93.74 a barrel yesterday. High oil prices are a direct tax on the consumer so this must be watched closely.
Natural gas is pulling back as well after having a couple of strong sessions.
4. Gold will likely be in play after the FOMC announcement. If the fed sounds dovish, gold should act well. On the other hand, if the fed sounds hawkish and the market believes the fed then gold will likely pullback. One thing is for sure, it will be a mover after the announcement.
5. Bitcoin is flat on the flatish side today. The daily chart has had some bounces recently, but the weekly chart is bearish.
Visit Nick's site: https://InTheMoneyStocks.com
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Kerry Lutz and Craig Hemke discussed various economic issues, including the impact of Fed rate cuts on the dollar index and metals, the rise of part-time jobs in the gig economy, and the failing banking system. They also talked about China's currency collapse, the disparity in the price of silver between Shanghai and New York/London, and the struggles of emerging markets due to their collapsing currencies. The speakers emphasized the importance of considering the eventuality of the trillions of debt and debt service costs, and how this will impact the current economic structure. They also discussed the end of the debt-based monetary system and the potential implications for the global markets, including the devaluation of currencies and the need for physical gold and silver.
Special offer from Craig use promo code Gold
Craig's site https://TFMetalsReport.com
Kerry Lutz and the Russell Stone discussed the impact of inflation on the economy, predicting a decrease in demand for non-essential items and a drop in prices. They also discussed the deflationary cycle and how it will squeeze out unnecessary credit in the system. The group also talked about the impact of high oil prices on the economy and how people will adapt to changes.
They also had a disagreement on Biden's performance, with Kerry praising him and the conference room highlighting his failures. The group discussed strategies for protecting wealth during uncertain times, suggesting accumulating real money, avoiding unnecessary debt, and investing in government-backed money market accounts. They emphasized the need to be proactive and avoid unnecessary market exposure.
1. Weak start for the markets to begin the week. Last week was a very choppy and volatile options expiration and today much slower.
2. The regional banks are on my radar today. The important Regional Bank ETF (KRE) is trading lower by 1.7% and this pattern is signaling a decline down to the $41.00 area. That support level better hold or else this is going to signal another round of problems on the horizon. The 2023 low for the KRE was at $34.52 so at this time this is just a retrace pattern, but the $41.00 level will be important.
3. The auto workers strike is still going on today. Either way, Ford (F) looks weak on the charts and so does GM. I have Ford ultimately going to $9.00 which could be a good stop to buy the shares. I have GM going to $26.50. and that could be a good bargain as well.
4. Gold is flat this morning. it made a decent comeback last Friday climbing back to its 20-day moving average and remaining above the important 200-day moving average. This keeps gold in a position to fight another day.
The DXY is flat today and this will often affect the gold action.
5. Bitcoin is catching a very good pop today. The popular crypto is trading higher by about 3.0%. The pattern on the weekly chart will be important by the end of the we
In a meeting between Kerry Lutz and Reuben Mettinson, founder of Puli Trading, Reuben explains that their forex trading system is based on transparency, regulation, and a complex algorithm that uses three different types of trading strategies across eight different currency pairs. The system has achieved a 33% gain over the past nine months, with a high risk-to-reward ratio. Reuben emphasizes the importance of risk management, including a tight stop loss on every trade, and being aware of the risks involved in investing.
The algorithm took five months of full-time work with developers and mathematical prodigies to create, and is highly selective and focused on quality over quantity. Interested parties can find out more about their trading system on their website.
Find Reuben here - Puli Trading
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David Stryzewski, a financial expert, discusses the current market situation and predicts that inflation is back and here to stay due to rising oil and gasoline prices. He advises investors to be cautious and patient, and to consider buying low and selling high, and dollar cost averaging. Stryzewski suggests investing in precious metals, particularly silver and copper, due to their increasing demand in the market.
He warns against investing in bonds and suggests finding alternative investment options. Stryzewski also predicts a decrease in real estate prices due to rising interest rates and a decrease in supply and demand. He emphasizes the importance of understanding risk management strategies and protocols in investing, particularly for those nearing retirement.
Find David here MySPG
Find Kerry here FSN
1.The CPI numbers were released today. The August consumer price index rose 0.6% for the month, and was up 3.7% from a year ago. This number was expected so it was not a big surprise to the markets. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy, increased 0.3% and 4.3% respectively, against estimates for 0.2% and 4.3%.
The bottom line, the market expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged at the next meeting which is on September 20th.
2. Tomorrow we get the PPI number at 8:30am EST.
3. The ultimate pair trade, Buy Eli Lilly and sell McDonald’s.
4. Today, all of the big tech CEOs are meeting in Washington DC. CEO's such as Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerburg, Sundai Pachai and many others are going to talk to the senators about AI. I'm not sure what is going to come out of this.
5. Gold is flat today, but it did pull down a little yesterday. As you know, gold often dips during options expiration so we should not rule that out. There is still some daily chart support around the $1913 level.
6. Bitcoin is trading up today by 0.25%. Bitcoin had a good pop yesterday, but I'm not sure it is anything more than some options expiration game playing this week.
UAW is about to go on strike. Big raises coming?
Bank of Japan is talking about letting interest rates rise more. How is that possible given the government's debt?
US interest rates are up too. Where do things start breaking?
Will gold seasonality matter this time?
Michael Shellenberger's reporting on offshore wind killing whales while the government lies about is interesting.
The Obesity Epidemic is paying huge dividends to big pharma.
Bill Gates is funding the cutting down and burying of millions of trees to sequester carbon. What's his scam?
The AI race is looking dot-com like. Just today Meta and Tesla emerged as new players. How soon before everyone has an AI division?
5th Circuit affirms Judge Jerry Doughty’s July 4th ruling against the government sensoring big tech.
Visit John’s site at: https://Rubino.Substack.com
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Kerry Lutz and John Rubino discussed a range of topics. They talked about the changing landscape of private sector unions and their ability to strike for higher wages, as well as the potential for inflation due to wage increases. They suggested that companies should offer stock options to employees as a way to align their interests with management and moderate demands.
The speakers also discussed the potential for wage inflation to spook the Fed into staying tighter for longer and the impact of rising interest rates in Japan on the country's budget. They also touched on the negative effects of higher interest rates on banks and the majority of the population who rely on cheap debt.
The conversation then shifted to the profitability of lifestyle diseases for various industries, including Big Pharma, Big Food, and the government. They discussed the causes of the obesity epidemic and how it has led to the creation of drugs resulting in a gold rush for pharmaceutical companies. Additionally, they mentioned the profitability of chemotherapy and the lack of correlation between its u..
1.Today is the 9-11 anniversary. This is often a light volume session that will often finish slightly positive.
2. This Friday is options ex for September. It is a quadruple witching options expiration. That means that four different asset classes will expire this week. It will usually make for a lot of erratic action in many different stocks. Often, stocks that are in the stratosphere will pull back and stock beaten up will often catch bids. Just expect the unexpected.
3. This morning, the semiconductors are not participating in the early tech rally. Leading semiconductor stocks such as NVIDIA and AMD are both trading lower. These stocks are also dragging the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) lower.
Earlier today, Apple (AAPL) and Qualcomm (QCOM) signed a deal where QCOM will supply chips to Apple for the next 3 years. It's ironic how this news was released this week ahead of options ex.
4. There’s a veritable gold rush taking place in weight loss drugs. Eli Lily and Novartis stocks are booming. Lily is up 600% since 2020. Novartis has an over $400 billion market cap. More companies are trying to replicate their success.
5. Gold is trading up a little as the US dollar Index pulls back. We always must be careful with gold this week as it is often vulnerable to institutional game playing during options expiration.
6. Bitcoin is trading down by over 2% today. This chart is not looking very good right now. I'm not seeing any strength in the daily or weekly chart and the next major support area is around the 21.500 area.
Kerry Lutz interviewed Alex Jarbo about his experience running luxury short-term vacation rentals and investing in rural mountain markets. They discussed the challenges of the market, including rumors of market saturation, and how Alex has overcome them by treating vacation rentals like a business and going multi-platform. Alex shared his strategies for obtaining clients' contact information and remarketing to them through direct booking sites.
They also discussed the importance of insurance and handling customer complaints in the short-term vacation rental market. Alex suggested investing in mountain markets that aren't ski resorts, as they tend to be less seasonal, and recommended looking at the Blue Ridge Mountains and the Smoky Mountains. He also discussed the importance of finding a vacation rental cleaning company that specializes in vacation rentals and can handle maintenance and inventory, as well as virtual assistants who can handle messaging and guest inquiries.
Find Alex at: https://OpenAtlas.Investments
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1. The major stock indexes are bouncing today continuing the move from late last Friday. This is the final trading week in August and the last week ahead of the Labor Day holiday. There's a chance that we see continued light volume and a gradual float higher into the end of the week. Most often holiday action will favor the upside, but we must not take that for granted. The month of August has been weak and that should continue into September.
2. Economic data has been a bit soft this week and that has helped the rally. Bad news is now good news again. Yesterday, the weak JOLTS report gave the market a jolt to the upside.
Today, the second estimate for Q2 GDP growth was marked down to 2.1% from the advance estimate of 2.4%. The GDP Price Deflator also got marked down to 2.0% from the advance estimate of 2.2%. The PCE Price Index got revised lower to 2.5% from 2.6%, as did the core-PCE Price Index, which checked in at 3.7% versus the advance estimate of 3.8%.
The bottom line, bad news is good news as investors hope the Fed will cut rates.
3. Yields have backed off this week and that has helped the markets to rally up. The 2-year note yield was above 5% late last week and it is now back down to 4.85%. Remember, if the 2 year note yield starts to climb back up to 5% it will likely spook markets once again.
4. Gold and silver are upticking a little today. Gold is popping up after forming a 4-day consolidating base on the daily chart. This pattern could lead to some more daily chart upside in the near term, but there is some daily resistance around the 1975 level.
5. Bitcoin surged yesterday after a positive court ruling for a Grayscale Bitcoin ETF. So while this was a solid surge there was a bullish chart pattern failure last week. So I would be very careful with Bitcoin futures right now.
1. Markets are under pressure to start the day. Traders and investors are now back from the Labor Day holiday and are taking some chips off the table.
2. Everyone is talking about the oil rally right now. Crude has been very strong recently trading as high as $88.07 a barrel yesterday. It looks overbought to me at this stage, despite the news that Opec and Russia will cut production. While this news is bullish for the oil price the chart is overbought and extended. If anyone is long oil here I would at least protect the position.
3. Tech is getting hammered today. Apple (AAPL) is trading down by $5.00 today and this will certainly get the antennas up from many investors. This stock is certainly still the market leader despite all the focus being on AI and Nvidia (NVDA).
4. Gold is under a little pressure this morning. It is still trading above some key support levels, but a close below the $1914 level will open the door to lower prices.
Silver is also very weak today trading down by 1.4%. Again, the pattern looks very similar to gold right now.
5. Bitcoin futures are under slight pressure today. The bullish pattern that was in place two weeks ago failed and I now look for more downside in the crypto name. My next key suport area is around the 21,500 level.
Kerry Lutz and Herman DeBoard discussed the negative impact of current administration policies on small businesses, including the B genomics program and inflation. They suggested that more funding should be directed towards small businesses to help them grow and stimulate the economy. They also discussed the lack of support for small businesses and the potential for another wave of the pandemic and lockdowns.
Additionally, they touched on the debate around a green economy and the challenges of transitioning to one without the necessary infrastructure in place. The two also debated the likelihood of future lockdowns and discussed potential solutions, including opening up more funding and reducing interest rates. They expressed skepticism about the government's ability to effectively distribute funds and promoted Herman's website for those interested in learning more about his company.
Visit Herman Here: https://huvr.com
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this interview, Kerry Lutz and Joseph Reinke discussed the challenges of investing in an uncertain economic climate and the importance of managing risk and setting realistic goals. They emphasized the need to focus on increasing assets and debt over time while prioritizing short-term goals such as paying off debt or saving for a down payment on a house. The concept of human capital was also discussed, and Reinke's algorithms were highlighted as a tool to quantify the risk associated with different income streams and educational investments.
The importance of education and its impact on financial stability was also explored, with a focus on the potential return on investment for courses and degrees. The value of learning basic information and pursuing non-traditional education paths was also emphasized, highlighting the benefits of exploring alternative education paths and learning new skills to increase opportunities and income.
Kerry Lutz and Eddie Siddell discussed the recent GDP print of 2.1% and its impact on the Fed's monetary policy. Eddie Siddell believes that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points and maybe one more, even though it's lagging. The discussion also touched on the impact of the upcoming election on the Fed's decision-making process. Eddie Siddell expressed concern about the debt at all-time record highs across the board, including credit card debt, revolving debt, and student loans.
They also discussed the impact of rising costs on everyday Americans and how to prepare for the "silent recession." Eddie suggested hedging bets with risk-off investments like treasury bonds and precious metals, while Kerry asked how individuals can personally prepare for the inevitable economic downturn. They also discussed specific sectors that may be good plays, such as utilities and healthcare. Overall, the conversation provided practical advice for individuals looking to weather the economic storm.
Find Eddie at: https://egsifinancial.com/
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Labor market data is mixed, with unions getting double-digit wage increases while job openings (three-month drop of 1.5 mill) and payrolls getting revised way lower.
Home sales also revised way lower. Housing is frozen, other than cash buyers.
China is trying to reflate a real estate bubble, failing so far.
Bitcoin spikes on good news about an ETF approval
Biden is getting closer to impeachment. Lately it's been about his fake email addresses and what kinds of deals he did with them.
The BRICS inducted Saudi Arabia, UAE and Iran. Wow.
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