Another misclassification problem hiding possible adverse outcomes inn pregnancy?
Instead of comparing bad outcomes (like miscariage and stillbriths) for vaccinated v unvaccinated women UKHSA grouped all unvaccinated with those vaccinated prior to (but not during) pregnancy into a single "no doses in pregnancy" category. So, in comparing pregnancy outcomes this "no doses in pregnancy" category was used as a surrogate for “unvaccinated”. Laura Kenny was fully vaccinated before August 2021(before she was pregnant) and then suffered 2 'bad outcomes' (miscarriage, Nov 2021 and ectopic pregnancy, Jan 2022). This means that Laura Kenny's bad outcomes would have been classified as part of the "no doses in pregnancy" category. The For full details:
See: https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/p/laura-kenny-and-the-vaccinated-olympic

We’ve done many videos and substack articles talking about false positives for disgnostic test results and in particular for the covid-19 pcr tests. Unfortunately many people including scientists and top legal scholars and judges still do not really get it. They fail to understand the 'elephant in the room' - the impact of the underlying population infection rate.

This short video hopefully will make it clear to everybody who watches it.

See also https://youtu.be/HMAxrY8Ob9Y for Bayes Theorem

Mathematician Richard Gill (a colleague and friend) put out a tweet with a number of assumptions abou the case of Lucy Letby (the UK nurse convicted in 2023 of multiple baby murders), using a Bayesian analysis to conclude that a sepsis outbreak was much more likely to have been the cause of the baby deaths than Lucy. He claimed that, with his assumptions the posterior odds of sepsis outbreak rather than Lucy being the killer was about 4000:1. Using a simply Bayesian network I show that the posterior odds are more like 166:1 (if I have understood Richard's assumptions). Of course the critical assumptions Richard makes (which were not accepted during the trial) are that a) there was little evidence of malicious harm to the babies; and b) there was much evidence of a sepsis outbreak. Whether or not these assumptions are reasonable this is nevertheless a nice example of a Bayesian network in action

The UK Government, UN, EU, WEF and Joe Biden have recently all announced that 'right wing extremists' and those who spread 'misinformation' now represent the greatest threat to society. While on the Mark Steyn cruise Norman Fenton bravely confronted two such dangerous people - Leilani Dowding and Samantha Smith

On 16 Feb 2024 I had an hour-long conversation with Randy Bock in which we discussed a range of issues relating to the covid years, and in particular the political issues arising from it. The full interview is here: https://www.youtube.com/live/2aagmv-nMkg
In this clip I spoke about how I was reminded (after reading the excellent Avi Yemini autobiography) of the rather too convenient timing for China of the outbreak of covid, since it happened as the anti-CCP demonstrations in Hong Kong looked as if they were becoming unstoppable.

On 16 Feb 2024 I had an hour-long conversation with Randy Bock in which we discussed a range of issues relating to the covid years, and in particular the political issues arising from it. The full interview is here: https://www.youtube.com/live/2aagmv-nMkg
In this brief clip from near the end of the video I recount the anecdote of what happened in 2011 when I dared to do a Bayesian analysis to determine the probability that Barak Obama’s autobiography was ghost-written by Weather Underground terrorist Bill Ayers. The full story of that can be found here: https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2011/07/using-bayes-to-prove-obama-did-not.html

This is a clip from an interview I did on 14 Feb 2024 with David Scott for his “Necessarily So” podcast (the full interview is here: https://youtu.be/6Urgh8asMKk). In this clip I answered David’s question about the agenda that was driving many academics’ work toward authoritarian type control. I spoke about how my experience of presenting the BBC Documentary “Climate Change by Numbers” led me to understand the extent to which climate scientists ‘lie for the greater good’ and that the use of easily manipulated data and overly complex mathematical models was common to both climate change alarmism and covid alarmism.

This is a clip from Norman's interview on the Alexandra Marshall show 5 Feb 2024. Full show is here: https://watch.adh.tv/videos/prof-norman-fenton-rachael-wong-monday-5-february-2023

This is a clip from Norman's interview on the Alexandra Marshall show 5 Feb 2024. Full show is here: https://watch.adh.tv/videos/prof-norman-fenton-rachael-wong-monday-5-february-2023

This is a clip from Norman's interview on the Alexandra Marshall show 5 Feb 2024. Full show is here: https://watch.adh.tv/videos/prof-norman-fenton-rachael-wong-monday-5-february-2023

[Trigger warning contains scene with violence] This is an update of a video I posted 4 years ago. The classic 1978 Michael Cimino film “The Deer Hunter” contains one of the most iconic scenes in cinema history involving a ‘game’ of Russian roulette forcibly played by two American soldiers held captive in Vietnam. This scene never seems to lose its impact and it provides a rich source of examples to illustrate (for people with no background in maths or stats) core concepts of probability and risk including: basic probability axioms, conditional probability, event trees, risk and utility.

This is part of a longer video I uploaded yesterday about flawed studies.:

This is about the recent study
https://ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712%2823%2900802-0/fulltext
from Brazil that worryingly claimed that children of women exposed to covid were more likely to suffer neurodevelopmental impairment. But the study failed to take account of which women got the covid vaxx during pregnancy.

No matter how many times we’ve pointed this out, studies continue to be published in the most prestigious medical journals that should never have passed review. In the last few days we’ve been alerted to some new studies that are especially ludicrous which suggests increasing desperation to prop up the official narrative. I briefly talk about three of these. Full details with links to the first two studies are in these substack articles:

https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/p/lancet-paper-on-dangers-of-undervaccination

https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/p/yet-another-lancet-paper-applied

The third study is this one:
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(23)00802-0/fulltext

During his excellent speech in Parliament on excess deaths (16 Jan 2024) Andrew Bridgen, MP cited our paper that showed seasonality - not vaccines or other interventions explained the pattern of covid cases and deaths:
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/13/2/334

In this clip from his interview with Tucker Carlson Willie Soon spoke about the failure of lockdowns, masks and vaccines - as described in the paper in which he and I were co-authors.
The full interview is here: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1744777758507504061
The full paper is here https://www.mdpi.com/2628834
My substack article is here: https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/publish/post/140458445

Short video (1 minute 36 seconds) with 4 different powerful optical illusions. When I used to do my introductory lecture on risk and probability I used these as motivation to explain that many probability illusions are just as powerfully misleading.

Nearly 2 years ago I did an interview with Robert F Kennedy Jr discussing the statistical tricks used to exaggerate both the deadliness of the covid virus and effectiveness of the vaccines. In this clip I spoke about how they justified the second lockdown in the UK in Dec 2020. The full interview and write-up is on the Childrens Halth Defence website: https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/officials-manipulated-covid-data-mathematician-tells-rfk-jr/

A husband and wife both die of the same rare disease within a short space of time. Like winning the jackpot lottery twice, most people assume it's too much of a coincidence for it to happen purely by chance. But such 'incredible coincidences' are actually very likely. This video goes through the probability calculations for these types of problems

As they're STILL trying to drum up fears that covid 'cases' could overwhelm hospitals this winter, here's a quick reminder from an interview with Del Bigtree in 2021 of what these 'covid hospitalisations' are

Norman asked Mark's views on Andrew Bridgen's resignation and pointed out the recent anti-Israel stance that Andrew had taken in Parliament. See also this thread on X for background https://x.com/profnfenton/status/1737406256103526765

Is attending the cinema deadly?

Or, to express the question statistically, does more frequent attendance increase or decrease mortality?

This sounds like a crazy question because intuitively we know that cinema visits have no impact on your health. But imagine that a study has been done that collected data on people who had died after visiting the cinema and concluded that attending the cinema contributed to an increase in mortality. Should you believe this conclusion?

I show using graphical illustrations that there are two different types of survivor bias which, by suitable manipulation of the statistics, can be used to show both increases or decreases in mortality rates the more cinema visits that are made. If we simply replace ‘cinema visits’ with ‘vaccine doses’ then it is clear that we can create - for a placebo vaccine - exactly the same statistical illusions of either increased safety, the more doses you take, or decreased safety, the more doses you take.

See https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/p/survivor-bias-cuts-both-ways-and

Harry Markham is a Junior Research Fellow at the Institute for Studies of Global Antisemitism and Head of Research and Policy at the Association of British Muslims (the oldest Muslim organisation in the UK). He is also a student at UCL and a proud British Jew.

On 17 Nov 2023 he spoke with Norman Fenton about the recent events in Israel, the growing threat of antisemitism - especially from Islamists, the weakness of 'establishment' jewish organisations in combatting this threat and about his forthcoming book that addresses these issues.

In June 2021 Susan Michie interviewed on Channel 5 said that she believed the covid restricton measures like social distancing and masking should 'continue forever'

This is an excerpt from the The Mark Steyn Clubland Q&A 8 Nov 23
https://www.steynonline.com/13914/make-mine-a-stiff-one

Mark was responding this comment I made:

Mark: Your comments on the the Israel-Gaza situation have been brilliant as usual - it's great to know that, at one of the darkest times in Jewish history, there are still some people with genuine integrity who understand the injustice of this situation in which the people who suffered the most barbaric terrorist attack and whose very existence is now threatened on mutliple fronts get cast as the villains. All while we have to observe the alliance of Muslims and progressives everywhere supporting the terrorists, and demanding our destruction. But I have noticed (I won't mention any names) that some of your other frequent guests have been either ambivalent about the situation, taken the moral equivalence route, or (in one case) simply swallowed the Hamas propaganda. How do you feel about that? - it seems at least disrespectful to you.

In his show on 27 Oct 2023 Mark Steyn speaks about what happens to people when they 'deviate' from their expected area of interest. Here he talks about my experience after I spoke about the Hamas massacre in Israel.

Full show: (this particular discussion starts at about 53 minutes)
https://www.steynonline.com/13890/trying-times