WM Briggs, the Statistician to the Stars!
Please comment and send future video requests at https://wmbriggs.com/post/28123/
The Epidemiologist Fallacy marries the Ecological Fallacy with the P-value Fallacy. The Ecological Fallacy is when it is said X causes Y, but X is not measured, and instead a proxy is. The P-value fallacy is to suppose a wee p-value has confirmed X causes Y. The P-value Fallacy can also be done with Bayesian methods, as in the example given.
The paper shown does not use P-values, but does use parameter-based Bayesian measures which exaggerate evidence. See the above link for an explanation.
See the video for the Double Epidemiologist Fallacy!
Created 4 months, 1 week ago.
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See https://wmbriggs.com for a complete description. I am a wholly independent vagabond writer, statistician, scientist and consultant. Previously a Professor at the Cornell Medical School, a Statistician at DoubleClick in its infancy, a Meteorologist with the National Weather Service, and a sort of Cryptologist with the US Air Force (the only title I ever cared for was Staff Sergeant Briggs).
My PhD is in Mathematical Statistics, though I am now a Data Philosopher (I made that up), Epistemologist, Probability Puzzler, Unmasker of Over-Certainty, and (self-awarded) Bioethicist. My MS is in Atmospheric Physics, and Bachelors is in Meteorology & Math.
Author of Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics, a book which calls for a complete and fundamental change in the philosophy and practice of probability & statistics; author of two other books and dozens of works in fields of statistics, medicine, philosophy, meteorology and climatology, solar physics, and energy use appearing in both professional and popular outlets.