Russia strikes back against the Empire (2/2)
https://thenakedhedgie.com/2022/01/31/russia-strikes-back-against-the-empire-2-2/#more-3245
This article is the second of two parts about Russia’s radical new gambit in its relationship with Western powers. In part 1 I covered the recent history of the conflict, its broader historical context as well as its economic underpinnings. This part discusses Russia’s likely response to the US/NATO failure to respond to her security concerns. The video version, which covers both parts is available at this link.
Clearly, the conflict between east and west is not over ideology or a bit of territory. It is about hegemony over resource rich regions of the world and this makes the two sides’ positions intractable. The Russians clearly understand this which may explain why they presented the Western powers with a set of demands so tough that they certainly knew they would be rejected. It seems that Russia really does intend to respond with military technical measures that will jeopardize western powers’ security. So far however, even among the Russian analysts, nobody seems to know what’s coming next.
Most of the experts and officials in the West seem convinced that Russia will invade Ukraine, but I don’t think this will happen. The media also made much of Russia’s deputy foreign minister’s remarks that they don’t exclude deploying military assets in Cuba or Venezuela, which can’t be excluded longer term. A few analysts including Scott Ritter suggested that Russians might deploy medium-short range missiles targeting European capitals with nuclear capable warheads.
The Kremlin will probably increase pressure on the US and NATO countries in multiple ways, but my own hunch is that their first focus will be on the Persian Gulf region which is strategically of huge importance to the West but where US positions are increasingly fragile. Russia could jeopardize western power’s security in that region by implementing “military technical measures” in support of friendly regimes, primarily Iran. It is clear that Iran is becoming an important component of China’s One Belt One Road agenda and that it is being set up as the cornerstone of their security architecture in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. These developments also have the full support from Russia.
On 27 March last year, Iran signed a comprehensive 25-year cooperation plan with China which includes cultural, diplomatic, economic and military cooperation. On 17 September Iran became a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Iran has also signed various security agreements with Russia and is in the process of negotiating a 20-year cooperation agreement modeled on the Iran-China agreement.
On 11 December 2021, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh stated that, “Like the 25-year cooperation roadmap we developed with China, we can do the same with major neighboring countries.” Clearly, the Iranians, who have pledged to throw the United States out of the region, have been increasingly confident in asserting their regional influence. Of course, the greatest challenge to Iran’s regional policy and security is the presence of American troops and military bases surrounding Iran as this map shows. The map shows the deployment of US forces as at January 2020. I’ve only crudely updated it to account for US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Incidentally, the above map illustrates another reason why the hold on Afghanistan was so important to the empire.
Iran’s partnership with Russia and China will ultimately tip the military balance of power, so it was perhaps no coincidence that Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Moscow was scheduled for Wednesday, 19 January 2022 – only days after the failed talks between Russia and the US in Geneva. In announcing the meeting, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said it was a “very important” meeting and added that, “Undoubtedly, among international issues, the ones such as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and the security of the Persian Gulf will be discussed in the meeting of the Presidents of Iran and Russia.”
Russia will not need to confront the US militarily at all – the US forces will simply be worn down and eventually pushed out in a similar way as they were pushed out from Afghanistan.
