At the moment the press are all saying that we are now highly unlikely to leave the EU on the 29th March 2019.
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This is presumably based on the motion passed in the House of Commons last night where the government says it will ask for an extension.
But, unless it is to get her Withdrawal Agreement legislation through, or is for another definite and clearly defined purpose, then it is highly unlikely to be agreed to by the EU.
And as I've said many times before, this changes nothing in the law as it stands.
The legal default position enshrined in statute is that the UK will leave the EU at 11 pm on the 29th March 2019 on WTO terms. And there are only two weeks left to interfere with that process.
Now, some will point out that a Minister of the Crown has the power to change that exit date within the EU Withdrawal Act 2018, but I would point out that they would have to have a legal reason to do so in both UK and EU law prior to amending that date.
Be in no doubt that Theresa May cannot get her Withdrawal Agreement in place without an Article 50 extension.
And here's why:
Under the Withdrawal Act 2018 before she can ratify her deal with the EU, she has to have her deal agreed in the Commons, which it has not been.
Now, I had thought that it needed to go to the House of Lords next. But it turns out that they say they complied with that part of the legal requirement on the 14th January this year, by voting that the House of Lords 'takes note' of it after they debated it.
But the next step is a real biggy and requires the PM to steer a brand new bill ..
