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The Epidemiologist (P-value + Ecological) Fallacy Exposed

First published at 12:12 UTC on September 18th, 2019.

WM Briggs, the Statistician to the Stars!

WMBriggs

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Please comment and send future video requests at https://wmbriggs.com/post/28123/

The Epidemiologist Fallacy marries the Ecological Fallacy with the P-value Fallacy. The Ecological Fallacy is when it is said X causes Y, but X is not measured, and …

Please comment and send future video requests at https://wmbriggs.com/post/28123/

The Epidemiologist Fallacy marries the Ecological Fallacy with the P-value Fallacy. The Ecological Fallacy is when it is said X causes Y, but X is not measured, and instead a proxy is. The P-value fallacy is to suppose a wee p-value has confirmed X causes Y. The P-value Fallacy can also be done with Bayesian methods, as in the example given.

The paper shown does not use P-values, but does use parameter-based Bayesian measures which exaggerate evidence. See the above link for an explanation.

See the video for the Double Epidemiologist Fallacy!

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The Epidemiologist (P-value + Ecological) Fallacy Exposed

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