U.S. Hospitals Could Overflow By May 8, Still Report #2973

Good evening, I’m still reporting on the coronavirus, COVID-19.
A sobering analysis running in ZeroHedge today. Some simple math shows that U.S. hospitals could be overwhelmed by coronavirus patients around May 8.
The analysis was done by Liz Specht, a PhD in biology and assoc. director of Science and Technology for the Good Food Institute and was based on the available numbers we have at the present time on the spread of the disease.
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“I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math. “

Dr. Specht says that we can expect to see a doubling of cases every 6 days. This figure is based on typical doubling time in several epidemiological studies. This doubling time will not slow down – not stopping, but merely start to slow down - until about 1% of the population has been infected – that’s about 3.2 million people.
Figures from a study of Italian coronavirus patients show that about 10% needs hospitalization. That means that before the increase peaks, we will need about 320,000 hospital beds for coronavirus patients.
So when will this happen?
Well, the U.S. has about one million hospital beds, however, on average, 65% of those beds are constantly in use. That leaves only 350,000 empty beds nationwide.
If these rough numbers hold, the United States will run out of hospital beds about May 8th. Coronavirus patients tend to need weeks of hospitalization, so turn over will be very slow.
Now all this is before we factor in that all of these coronavirus patients will need some sort of isolation or quarantine – something currently mostly non-available.
This situation is already happening in South Korea. Thousands of Koreans are waiting for hospital beds as coronavirus surges in that nation.
Another analysis by Dr. Trevor Bedford tweeted out yesterday shows hyperbolic growth as well.
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Here is the current Johns Hopkins COVID-19 incidence map. It shows 424 U.S. infections currently.
Here is the prediction of Infectious Disease modeling researcher Trevor Bedford.
He says that on Tuesday, March 10, the U.S. should break 1,000 active coronavirus cases, and 2,000 by March 15 – one week from today. That’s also a doubling time of 6.2 days. Very worrisome.
So it is absolutely imperative that the federal government put itself into emergency gear right now – today - to try to put a significant dent in the typical doubling time curve.
But there is an even more rudimentary problem – the supply of masks.
The feds say that the U.S. has a national stockpile of 12 million N95 masks and 30 million surgical masks. The surgical masks are not ideal, but better than nothing.
There are about 18 million healthcare workers in the U.S. Even of only 6 million of those are working on any given day (which is likely a big underestimate). As COVID-19 pops up in every state, it will soon be seen as irresponsible for a health care worker not to wear a mask. At that point, the U.S. would run out of masks after only 2 days if each healthcare worker only used one mask a day.
That’s bad!
And the U.S. can’t ramp up production easily. Most of the masks are made in China as is most of the raw materials to make them with. And guess what; China has its own mask crisis – as does every country in the world.
What’s going to happen? Exactly what is happening in China. Healthcare workers will eventually be working without masks – much less full-protective suits.
That means that – as in China – healthcare workers will start dropping out of the workforce as they too get sick. This will put more work an fewer shoulders and you can see where this is going.
But it’s not just masks. There are other items that will be under stress, from ventilators to saline drip bags. All this will come into short supply in the May timeframe if this disease doubling curve is not bent right away.
What can be done? Just today we have seen major events where thousands gather being canceled. This is a good thing. Basketball games should be played only for a televised audience, not an in-person crowd, etc.
It would not be a bad idea for school systems to consider closing schools for a month, then pick back up in the summer when the spreading of viruses seems to diminish. This is probably the most effective way to put a dent in the doubling curve.
Here’s the latest from Fox News, an attendee of CPAC from last week has just tested positive for coronavirus.
This just in from the Lombardy region of Italy. The head of Lombardy’s intensive care crisis unit says the health system is on the brink of collapse. Intensive care is being set up in hallways. By March 26, they predict that there will be 18,000 COVID-19 cases in Lombardy of which 3,000 will need intensive care.
This from Germany, this chart shows the probably spread of coronavirus in Germany as of yesterday. The assumption is that with a herd immunity at 70%, the virus wil