Maná maná https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kx_KxvAf_1Y
https://www.preventionweb.net/news/clade-x-pandemic-exercise-highlights-policies-needed-prevent-or-reduce-worst-possible-outcomes?fbclid=IwAR0_x44QN6hB3uOfQUJeF89jc586Zhc09I2BtDyN21g4vhYGt7uKwDhrPnw
CLADE X PANDEMIC EXERCISE HIGHLIGHTS POLICIES NEEDED TO PREVENT OR REDUCE THE WORST POSSIBLE OUTCOMES IN FUTURE PANDEMICS
The outbreak of a moderately contagious and moderately lethal novel pathogen precipitated a catastrophic end to the scenario in Clade X, the day-long pandemic tabletop exercise hosted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security on May 15 in Washington, DC.
Clade X https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2018_clade_x_exercise/index.html simulated a series of National Security Council–convened meetings of 10 US government leaders, played by individuals prominent in the fields of national security or epidemic response. Their dialogue as the scenario unfolded addressed significant uncertainties in current prevention and response capabilities, hamstrung by policy challenges at the federal level.
The scenario opens with the present-day outbreak of a new, serious respiratory disease in Germany and Venezuela. Soon after, Clade X is identified as a novel strain of human parainfluenza virus with genetic elements of Nipah virus. In the weeks that follow a fringe group bent on reducing the human population claims responsibility for the creation and intentional release of the disease. Authorities confirm those claims and verify that the novel strain was indeed engineered by the group’s scientists. There is no vaccine, and pressure grows as pockets of cases appear in the United States. Clade X quickly causes widespread, worldwide anxiety as case counts and deaths mount. Within a year, 150 million people die from the disease—15 million in the United States alone.
At the conclusion of the exercise, the Center presented 6 strategic policy goals needing commitment from the United States to prevent or reduce the worst possible outcomes in future pandemics. Those recommendations are:
Develop capability to produce new vaccines and drugs for novel pathogens within months not years.
Pioneer a strong and sustainable global health security system.
Build a robust, highly capable national public health system that can manage the challenges of pandemic response.
Develop a national plan to effectively harness all US healthcare assets in a catastrophic pandemic.
Implement an international strategy for addressing research that increases pandemic risks.
Ensure the national security community is well prepared to prevent, detect, and respond to infectious disease emergencies...........................................................
https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2018_clade_x_exercise/pdfs/Clade-X-pathogen-engineering-assumptions.pdf
CLADE X PATHOGEN ENGINEERING ASSUMPTIONS
The following is a description of biological properties and invented design assumptions for Clade X, a
fictitious novel virus that was the cause of the pandemic in the Clade X exercise.
SCENARIO PATHOGEN
The imagined Clade X pathogen is a hybrid of 2 similar viruses: Nipah virus, and human parainfluenza virus
(HPIV) serotype 3. In reality, Nipah virus has a high case fatality rate in humans (70%), but it is not
transmissible between humans. And HPIV is transmissible in humans, but death caused by HPIV is rare. In
the scenario story, the Clade X pathogen is theorized to retain both the lethality of Nipah and the
transmissibility of HPIV. In addition, the virus was theorized to be antigenically distinct from the 4 existing
HPIV serotypes. In this sense, the biological properties of the made-up Clade X virus are not novel, but there
is no real-world evidence that such a hybrid virus has actually been engineered, nor has it been identified in
nature.
ENGINEERING ASSUMPTIONS
In the fictitious story behind the exercise, the Clade X designers are imagined to be aided by animal and cell
culture methods, animal models, and reverse genetic systems. It is also assumed in the story that the designers
are not limited by ethical and moral standards, so they may use human test subjects rather than only cell
culture and animal models.
The Clade X pathogen was imagined to be designed with a hybrid approach of rational and irrational
methods. Rational approaches involve determining what genetic sequence performs a desired function and
incorporating that into a build-design test loop. It has the advantage of being precise, targeted, and fast, but it
is limited by the degree of knowledge designers have of the underlying biology or genes to be engineered.
Irrational genetic engineering involves an iterative approach of random mutation or recombination followed
by screening or selection. This approach has the advantage of evolving features that the “engineer” does not
understand but may be slow and imprecise.
