Good News! Coronavirus Doubling Curve Improves, 2980
Good afternoon, I’m still reporting on the coronavirus.
There are 3 pieces of good news on coronavirus today.
First, the best news is from the 7:33 am data dump onto the John Hopkins COVID-19 world map.
Increases in coronavirus in the United States in the last 24 hours have been significantly less than expected.
Here are the numbers from the 7:33 dump for the last two days. Total confirmed cases in the U.S. were 755 on Tuesday and 1039 on Wednesday. That’s a whopping 37.6% increase. That would imply a very scary doubling rate of the disease of less than two days. But remember, we cautioned that this might include the passengers from that cruise ship. But now it is apparent that this is not the case.
We were predicting 1430 on today’s 7:33 dump. But here it is, we only had 1,323. That’s only a 21.3% increase. But look, they have included a new category – cruise ship – 696. In other words, 696 people on that cruise ship have apparently tested positive out of 3,000+ on board. That didn’t make the news. But had they not broken that out into a separate category, that by itself, would have increased the U.S. confirmed cases by 50%.
So, this reduced increase in the incidence in the U.S. is not counting the cruise ship folks. That’s great news. That means that President Trump’s efforts to reduce the spread are working. Let’s see if this direction is confirmed tomorrow.
The second piece of good news is that the President announced last night there would be a travel ban of people trying to enter the U.S. from Europe. Why? Because the disease is much more out of control in Europe because they have not sealed their borders like the President has.
Back to the Hopkins map. All of western Europe and Scandinavia have significant outbreaks compared to their population sizes – except for eastern Europe, Hungary, Poland, etc. The eastern European nations have some of the lowest outbreak numbers. Why? Because they have sealed their borders.
Angela Merkel announced yesterday what we posted two days ago – the incredible news that Germany expects 70% of their population will become infected with the COVID-19 virus at some point.
Italy now has the second highest incidence in the world with over 12,000 infected. I have no idea why Iran’s numbers aren’t higher after their own health minister announced more than a week ago that 60,000 were infected in that nation.
France is the 5th highest in the world, Spain, the 6th, and Germany, the 7th highest, with the rest of Western Europe and Scandinavia filling in the top 20.
So Trump’s travel ban of incoming people from Europe is a good thing, but the EU folks are upset about it.
Well, get your act together like the U.S. has under Trump and protect your people.
The third piece of good news really should have been my #1, because as we sort of pieced together yesterday, there appears to be a cheap and easy remedy for the coronavirus once you catch it.
I did not have access to these next two Chinese studies yesterday. A friend sent them to me last night.
The first study was published on Feb. 19 in the Japanese Journal, BioScience Trends. It shows that China started studying this immediately.
“Chloroquine phosphate, an old drug for treatment of malaria, is shown to have apparent efficacy and acceptable safety against COVID-19 associated pneumonia in multicenter clinical trials conducted in China.”
This didn’t pop up overnight. Mysteriously, the details of the study link back to a Chinese source that apparently is now blocked, so we can’t see how many people were part of the study.
All we can see is the abstract, which goes on to recommend this treatment for future outbreaks:
“The drug is recommended to be included in the next version of the Guidelines for the Prevention, Diagnosis, and Treatment of Pneumonia Caused by COVID-19 issued by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China for treatment of COVID-19 infection in larger populations in the future.”
Then the next day another version of this study was published in a Chinese Journal. Here is the abstract of it in English. The only additional scrap of information is it contains a dosing recommendation:
“It recommended chloroquine phosphate tablet, 500mg twice per day for 10 days for patients diagnosed as mild, moderate and severe cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia and without contraindications to chloroquine.”
It would be nice to know when this study was mounted and how many patients were involved, but we’ll just have to wait on those details.
However, this plays into theories that China had an idea of the cure long before this became a world-wide pandemic.
A new theory on why this works is especially interesting. Dr. Roger Seheult, MD, believes that all the chloroquine does is open a pathway into the infected cells so that zinc in the blood can enter the cell and disrupt the ability of the virus to replicate.
Dr. Seheult also shows that a much lower dose of
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