The top 10 causes of death
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death
56.9 million deaths worldwide in 2016
54% were due to the top 10 causes
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Independent global health research organization
University of Washington School of Medicine
Rigorous and comparable measurement, world’s health problems, evaluates strategies
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
Global Review
Cases are remaining constant
250,000 per day since August
Approximately one infection in 10 has been detected globally to date
31, 483,001 = 314, 830, 010
Assuming 1,000,000 deaths
IFR = 0.32
Daily deaths are decline
Just over 5,000 a day in the last week
Making COVID-19 the sixth-leading cause of global mortality
Progress in Latin America except Argentina
Surging cases in Europe
Continued epidemic expansion in India
Expect
Decreasing vigilance of the public in many countries
Northern Hemisphere seasonality will lead to a major global surge in daily cases
Deaths increasing late November and December.
Projections
30,000 deaths a day in December
January 1, 2021, total deaths, 2,667,497
Fourth leading cause of death
Herd immunity strategy
Up to 70% of individuals can get infected in a situation of near-random mixing
Actual percentage probably less
No further government action when the winter surge begins in the Northern Hemisphere
Deaths by January 1, a total of 3,618,640.
Mask use can save more than 730,000 lives by January 1
43% of the deaths expected between now and the end of 2020
More on herd immunity
Multiple locations in Latin America are now at over 40%
Ecuador and Mexico City
Indicating percentages increase to at least these levels
With herd immunity at 40% cumulative infection
Highly optimistic
Less than one quarter through the epidemic on January 1
10.4 million deaths
With herd immunity at 50% cumulative infection
13.1 million deaths
Only if we end the pandemic eve..
