My Opening Electoral College Prediction Map, 3153
Good Saturday evening, I’m still reporting on the election.
You all should really check out the Comments to these reports. Lots of really smart people who prefer to remain anonymous, but contribute significant information from their chosen field.
Today one guy put up a electoral college prediction map and then explained his reasoning, and it just clicked for me. So I’m adopting it as my own. I would love to credit this guy for his brilliant approach, but he took his comment down for some reason. The only way I was able to retrieve it was by looking back at my browsing history and luckily I found it.
If this person sees this report, please contact me. I would love to work with you for the next 100 days.
Here is his final electoral college map for 2016. Trump needed 270 to win, and he got 306 to 232 for Clinton.
I missed on only two states that year. I thought he would win my home state of Virginia, but he lost, and I knew Wisconsin was close, but calling Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania for Trump I thought would 3 out of 4, so on the coin flip, I gave Wisconsin to Clinton. So my prediction was 309 to 229.
But it was a very close race in many states. But the little-known difference was the 3rd party candidates, especially the Libertarian Party which having re-nominated their most conservative team they had ever fielded for the top two spots, Gary Johnson, the former Gov. of New Mexico, and William Weld, the former Gov. of Mass., the LP was able to pull an astounding 3% of the vote – most of that coming out of Trump.
Typically, Libertarian candidates are more leftist to anarchist in political philosophy, and that’s being charitable. Though most of you don’t know it, I ran for the Libertarian nomination for President in 2012, against Gary Johnson.
I’ve faced him on the live debate stage many times. He was very well funded. I know he had political consultants around him who were billing at $350 per hour, because I talked to one who showed me the paperwork. I raised a mere $5,000, but that brought me a second place finish in the Florida primary in a field of 7 candidates. I finally ran out of money at the Ohio primary and had to drop out.
The reason I’m recounting all of this is that I know from an insiders perspective that Gary Johnson and Bill Weld were the most conservative candidates to ever run as Libertarians, and I am positive that a conservative estimate of the votes they drew away from Trump versus Hillary would be at least 75% came out of Trump and less than 25% from Hillary.
But this years Libertarian Party nominees are a return to the old leftist LP. Here is a picture of the Vice-Presidential nominee this year – the guy with the stuffed animal, standing along side of his mentor, perennial LP candidate ….. – the guy who always wears a boot on his head. I mean, these guys are from a Saturday Night Live skit, not a legit American political party. This is a group this year that only the left could love, and we predict that virtually every vote cast for these LP candidates will come out of the hide of Joe Biden – or whoever is the eventual Desperado nominee.
So, having said all that, the following Electoral College prediction map is a conservative calculation of approximately 75% of all 3rd party candidates combined added back in to Trump’s 2016 percentages and subtracted from the Clinton’s percentages. And this is a very conservative estimate. I don’t think Jumpin’ Joe Biden can pull the same centrist voters that Hillary could.
On top of that, some polling is now showing that up to 49% of blacks may vote for Trump, where in 2016, only 8% voted for Trump.
Here is a simple bar graph showing how whites, blacks, Hispanics and Asians voted. If you go cutting a sizeable chunk out of both the black vote and the Hispanic vote, the Desperados are done.
And that’s before you see what happens to the suburban mom vote. How do you think they are feeling about violence in the streets coming to their towns?
But this initial Electoral College prediction map takes none of these factors – all of which significantly favor Trump’s re-election – into account. This map is ONLY based on moving most of the Libertarian vote – which was 3% nationwide – over to the Trump column.
So here it is: 363 for Trump and only 175 for Biden. And this is pretty much the worst-case scenario for Trump. Trump could pick off Illinois or Conn., or even New Jersey. And don’t forget, Maryland has a sitting Republican governor right now.
The dark red states are solid Trump – forget what the lying “suppression” polls of the MSM have to say. Just like last time, these will gradually show Trump gaining strength a we get closer to election day.
The pink states are closer, but this shows that Trump will flip Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia this year. I’m not so sure on Virginia, but was stung in 2016 by the loss of my home state.
So yes, it is possible that Trump could win over 400 electoral college votes in November.
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