Prof. Norpoth – 91% Chance Trump Wins, 3200
Good morning, I’m still reporting on the election.
Professor Helmut Norpoth, a professor of political science at Stony Brook University in Stoneybrook, New York, has made his prediction on the Nov. 3rd presidential election.
Norpoth, who correctly predicted the outcome of the 2016 election 10 days before it occurred, says that Donald Trump now has a 91% chance of beating Jumpin’ Joe Biden on Nov. 3rd.
Norpoth has correctly predicted the eventual winner of 5 of the last 6 elections. He missed only in the 2000 election when he predicted that Al Gore would defeat George W. Bush. That election was one of the closest in American history and literally hung on hanging chads.
“The key to the November election is the primaries. The early primaries are giving us a lot of information. Based on that, Donald Trump won them very easily in his party. Joe Biden … had a great deal of trouble, pulled it together, but on balance is that stronger performance of primaries that gives Donald Trump the edge in November.”
Norpoth says that Biden’s first primary was a black eye.
“People have forgotten how Joe Biden did in New Hampshire. He was terrible. He got 8.4 percent of the vote, which is unbelievable for a candidate with any aspirations of being president.”
Democrat modeler, Nate Silver, is still giving Biden a 70% chance of victory to only a 30% chance that President Trump will be re-elected. Silver made similar predictions in the run-up to the 2016 election and was wildly wrong. This channel discovered the way Silver was skewing his polling to favor Democrats.
Interestingly, the British bookies show a much tighter race, but we won’t get into details in this report.
The Real Clear Politics national average of polls shows Biden still leading Trump by 7.1 percentage points, but Biden’s lead is dropping and will continue to drop, especially after polls are in after the Republican National Convention. The first of those polls will start to show up late tomorrow, Friday.
Interestingly, Trump is closing to an even greater extent in the top battleground states where Biden’s lead – according to RealClean Politics – has dropped to only 3.7%. However, Trump has cut Biden’s lead in half in recent weeks.
Of course many of these polls just can’t seem to find enough Republicans to include in their statistical samples.
In the 2016 election, the RealClear Politics polling average tended to skew to the left.
So here is the RealClear Politics’ electoral college map. It shows Jumpin’ Joe with a nearly 2-to-1 lead.
Of course this is ridiculous.
This will be my first prediction map. With 270 votes needed to win, Trump will get 321 to Biden’s 217.
The USC Sunrise poll has gotten underway. Last election, this was by far the most accurate poll, however this year, it shows Biden up by 11 points. The methodology of this Univ. of Southern California poll seems to have changed, but I don’t want to discuss this until I know exactly how they are selecting participants from their list of 6,000 eligible voters.
Obviously, when a poll is selecting participants it makes it much more susceptible to political manipulation and I suspect this is sadly the case this time around as the Desperados go all out to try to convince America that despite facilitating rioting in the streets of big blue cities, they still have any chance to win.
I’m still reporting from just outside the citadel of American freedom. Good day.
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