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Bitcoin and Stocks Crashing (Fed Tightening)

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First published at 17:30 UTC on December 4th, 2021.

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In this video, I discuss how the Fed's more hawkish rhetoric is causing a sell-off in stocks, Bitcoin, and other "risk assets."

Jerome Powell has been gi…

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In this video, I discuss how the Fed's more hawkish rhetoric is causing a sell-off in stocks, Bitcoin, and other "risk assets."

Jerome Powell has been given a free pass, through his renomination to the Fed, to pursue a more hawkish policy, in an effort to keep gas prices and rents from exploding further, causing political fall-out.

It's unlikely that this hawkish policy will be able to continue for very long before something in the system blows up. Perhaps it's a stock market crash (that hurts tax receipts and consumer spending), or perhaps it's a back-up in Treasury yields while stocks are still selling off.

Either way, the Fed will be forced to reverse course and start up the money printers again on full throttle in order to clean up the mess. The financial system is too levered to be able to handle tighter monetary policy, as it still could in 1980 under Paul Volcker, when debt/GDP levels were only 30%.

Bitcoin will continue to grow and take market share, regardless of Fed policy.

Not investment advice! Consult a financial advisor.

US debt clock:
https://www.usdebtclock.org/

Chart of debt/GDP:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S

Higher rents and gas prices hurting Biden's poll numbers:
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/10/rent-inflation-biden-520642
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/17/gas-prices-biden-inflation-522777

Powell gets another term:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/11/22/president-biden-nominates-jerome-powell-to-serve-as-chair-of-the-federal-reserve-dr-lael-brainard-to-serve-as-vice-chair/

Then Powell gets hawkish:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-30/powell-says-appopriate-to-weigh-earlier-end-to-bond-buy-tapering
https://www.wsj.com/articles/powell-warns-omicron-variant-could-worsen-inflation-boosting-bottlenecks-11638280800

Probabilities of Fed hikes:
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/intere..

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