LandDestroyer
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for March 17, 2024…
- Attempts by Ukraine to cross the Ukrainian-Russian border near Belgorod have been defeated by Russian forces;
- The attacks took place as part of a larger public relations campaign involving pin-prick attacks across Russia as Russian elections began;
- Western media has previously reported that attacks deep into Russian territory are met by indifference or even more determined support for Moscow among the Russian public and that such public relations stunts are meant more to bolster flagging Ukrainian morale;
- Ukraine’s cross-border operations come at a time when its forces are being pushed back along the line of contact after losing the heavily fortified city of Avdeevka;
- The US has announced a $300 million arms and ammunition package for Ukraine including additional ammunition for HIMARS and 155mm shells;
- The US claims this package is the result of finding additional funding from previous allotments but is more likely damage control regarding Washington’s inability to properly supply its Ukrainian proxies;
- CNN admits that Russia is producing at least 3 times more artillery ammunition than the US and Europe combined, this follows Western media admissions that Russia is making overall at least 7 times more munitions of all kinds than the collective West;
References:
CNN - Drones and shelling hit Russia’s Belgorod amid third day of border skirmishes (March 14, 2024):
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/14/europe/ukraine-russia-belgorod-drone-strikes-shelling-intl/index.html
Vice - Anti-Putin Militias Celebrating Attacks on Russia Are Filled With Neo-Nazis (May 2023):
https://www.vice.com/en/article/3akdpy/anti-putin-militias-celebrating-attacks-on-russia-are-filled-with-neo-nazis
France24 - Pro-Ukrainian armed groups launch incursion into Russia (March 12, 2024):
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240312-pro-ukrainian-armed-groups-launch-incursion-into-russia
Washington Post - In Belgo..
กรุณาเปิดแคป ชั่นใน YouTube (CC) แล้วกดเลือกภาษาไทย (now with Thai subtitles)
Just as the US is destabilizing the Middle East to contain Iran, and Eastern Europe to contain Russia, the US is destabilizing Southeast Asia vs. China.
The US is focused particularly on Myanmar where US backed opposition groups are using armed violence to seize power.
Through US gov orgs like the National Endowment for Democracy, the US is supporting these armed groups beyond Myanmar's borders in neighboring Thailand, endangering regional peace and stability.
References:
ASEAN - What We Do:
https://asean.org/what-we-do/
Reuters - Thai parliament holds Myanmar seminar over junta's objection (March 2, 2024):
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thai-parliament-holds-myanmar-seminar-over-juntas-objection-2024-03-02/
The Diplomat - UN General Assembly Denies Junta Bid for Myanmar Seat (December 2022):
https://thediplomat.com/2022/12/un-general-assembly-denies-junta-bid-for-myanmar-seat/
US State Department - Counselor Chollet’s Meeting with Burmese Representatives (September 2021):
https://www.state.gov/counselor-chollets-meeting-with-burmese-representatives/
NED - Zin Mar Aung:
https://www.ned.org/fellows/ms-zin-mar-aung/
NUG - Zin Mar Aung:
https://mofa.nugmyanmar.org/h-e-daw-zin-mar-aung/
US Institute of Peace - Jason Tower:
https://www.usip.org/people/jason-tower
Brot Fur Die Welt - Conflict Dynamics and the Belt and Road Initiative (2020):
https://www.brot-fuer-die-welt.de/fileadmin/mediapool/downloads/fachpublikationen/analyse/Analyse97-en.pdf
UN - Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar (Tom Andrews):
https://www.ohchr.org/en/special-procedures/sr-myanmar
NDI - Madeleine Albright:
https://www.ndi.org/people/madeleine-k-albright
The World - Myanmar Elections: A Changing Country and its Exiled Opponents (2012):
https://theworld.org/stories/2012-03-30/myanmar-elections-changing-country-and-its-exiled-opponents
Fortify Rights - Annual Repor..
- Ukraine is suffering from a growing military manpower crisis in addition to a lack of arms and ammunition;
- Trained military manpower takes up to half a year to produce, new brigade-sized units can take up to 30 months to stand up;
- Ukraine and its Western sponsors simply cannot produce trained military manpower faster than Russia is removing it from the battlefield;
- This leaves the collective West with the choice of either accepting it has lost its proxy war with Russia, or attempting to intervene more directly;
References:
NEO - Ukraine’s Manpower Crisis: No Amount of Money or Aid Can Solve It (March 5, 2024):
https://journal-neo.su/2024/03/05/ukraines-manpower-crisis-no-amount-of-money-or-aid-can-solve-it/
The Kyiv Independent - Ukraine struggles to ramp up mobilization as Russia's war enters 3rd year (March 3, 2024):
https://kyivindependent.com/move-to-expand-mobilization-brings-ukrainian-society-face-to-face-with-immense-pressure-of-war/
The Washington Post - Front-line Ukrainian infantry units report acute shortage of soldiers (February 8, 2024):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/08/ukraine-soldiers-shortage-infantry-russia/
US Department of Defense - The National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS) (2023-2024):
https://www.businessdefense.gov/NDIS.html
NEO - Fatal Flaws Undermine America’s Defense Industrial Base (February 15, 2024):
https://journal-neo.su/2024/02/15/fatal-flaws-undermine-americas-defense-industrial-base/
US Department of Defense - Press Release: Evaluation of Sustainment Strategies for the Patriot Air Defense Systems Transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces (DODIG-2024-056) and Evaluation of the DoD's Sustainment Plan for Bradley, Stryker, and Abrams Armored Weapon Systems (February 20, 2024):
https://www.dodig.mil/In-the-Spotlight/Article/3681630/press-release-evaluation-of-sustainment-strategies-for-the-patriot-air-defense/
Reuters - Ukraine considers proposal by army to mobilise another 500,000 for war (De..
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for March 10, 2024...
- US President Joe Biden claims Ukraine can “beat Putin” if given the weapons and ammunition to do so;
- The weapons and ammunition simply do not exist in the necessary quantities to do so and what is being sent to Ukraine is performing far short of expectations;
- US-made M1 Abrams destroyed by Russian T-72B3 dispelling the myth of American military superiority;
- Western arms manufacturers continue claiming interest in building facilities inside Ukraine but fail to explain how they would prevent such facilities from being destroyed by Russian missiles and drones;
- The West is failing to deliver sufficient amounts of artillery ammunition with a recent plan to secure rounds from outside the EU falling short of its 800,000 target;
- Increasing talk of more direct Western intervention in Ukraine suggests growing desperation among Western capitals;
Sources of Daily Ukraine Conflict Coverage:
Alexander Mercouris: https://www.youtube.com/@AlexMercouris
Alex Christoforou: https://www.youtube.com/@AlexChristoforou
Scott of Kalibrated: https://www.youtube.com/@Kalibratedwithscott
Not quite daily, but a good source on the conflict in Ukraine:
Mark Sleboda: https://substack.com/profile/38224488-mark-sleboda
References:
Business Insider - Even if Russia's army isn't a particularly good one, it won't matter if Ukraine's defenses crumble, war expert warns (March 9, 2024):
https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-army-good-bad-wont-matter-if-ukraine-defenses-crumble-2024-3
The White House - Remarks of President Joe Biden — State of the Union Address As Prepared for Delivery (March 7, 2024):
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/03/07/remarks-of-president-joe-biden-state-of-the-union-address-as-prepared-for-delivery-2/
France24 - French arms companies to manufacture directly on Ukrainian soil, defence minister says (March 8, 2024):
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20240308..
-Artificially intelligent (AI) chatbots are generative tools that produce text, images, code, and other media in response to questions or requests;
- AI chatbots can answer complex questions in a balanced and objective manner as long as the questions are equally balanced and objective;
-AI chatbots are useful tools being developed by a number of companies - but are only as useful or as good or bad as the people using them;
- The more hands AI technology is in, the greater the balance of power established, preventing monopolies and deterring abuse;
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References:
Foreign Affairs - The Taiwan Catastrophe (February 16, 2024):
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/taiwan-catastrophe
US State Department - U.S. Relations With Taiwan (May 2022):
https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/
Wilson Center Digital Archive - Joint Communique between the United States and China (1972):
https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/joint-communique-between-united-states-and-china
Wall Street Journal - U.S. to Expand Troop Presence in Taiwan for Training Against China Threat (February 2023):
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-expand-troop-presence-in-taiwan-for-training-against-china-threat-62198a83
US State Department, Office of the Historian - Memorandum on Formosa, by General of the Army Douglas MacArthur, Commander in Chief, Far East, and Supreme Commander, Allied Powers, Japan (June 1950):
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1950v07/d86
US White House - National Security Strategy (2022):
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf
CSIS - How Much Trade Transits the South China Sea?
https://chinapower.csis.org/much-trade-transits-south-china-sea/
NED - Taiwan Foundation for Democracy Taipei:
https://www.ned.org/taiwan-foundation-for-democracy-taipei/
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PromptPa..
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for March 3, 2024...
- Ukrainian forces continue falling back west of Avdeevka;
- Ukraine continues carrying out drone attacks inside Russia despite the Western media admitting it has little to no impact on the Russian population;
- While the West continues debating funding for Ukraine, the primary problem still stems from the fact there is not enough arms and ammunition to buy with the money in the first place;
- What arms Ukraine still has suffers from an inability to properly sustain and maintain it, as the US DoD has admitted and now a growing number or articles in the Western media confirm;
- Claims that Ukraine has shot down a large number of Su-34 aircraft remain unverified, even if true this rate of success is unsustainable for Ukraine;
- Germany is investigating alleged leaks of officials discussing the transfer of German-made cruise missiles to Ukraine including for attacking the Crimean bridge;
- Even if the Crimean bridge is destroyed, Russia can still sustain both the civilian economy and its military facilities on the peninsula;
References:
Reuters - Ukraine withdraws from two villages near Avdiivka (February 28, 2024):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-withdraws-two-villages-near-avdiivka-military-says-2024-02-27/
BBC - Nato allies reject Emmanuel Macron idea of troops to Ukraine (February 28, 2024):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68417223
CNN - Pentagon considering tapping last source of Ukraine military funding as Congress stalls on additional aid (February 28, 2024):
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/28/politics/pentagon-considering-tapping-last-source-ukraine-funding/index.html
BBC - Ukraine war: Zelensky says 31,000 troops killed since Russia's full-scale invasion (February 26, 2024):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68397525
WSJ - Ukraine Plunders Howitzer Graveyard to Keep Big Guns Firing (February 28, 2024):
https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-plunders-howitzer-gravey..
References:
NEO - Russia’s “Aggressive Attrition” Cracks Fortress Avdeevka (February 20, 2024):
https://journal-neo.su/2024/02/20/russias-aggressive-attrition-cracks-fortress-avdeevka/
BBC - Ukraine frontline fighting: Retreat from Avdiivka | BBC News (February 18, 2024):
https://youtu.be/E6Ll1lxcs3U?si=kAAsJi21HD_9bOtw
The Guardian - ‘A lot higher than we expected’: Russian arms production worries Europe’s war planners (February 15, 2024):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/rate-of-russian-military-production-worries-european-war-planners
RAND Corporation - Extending Russia, Competing from Advantageous Ground (2019):
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
CSIS - Ukraine in the Balance: A Battlefield Update on the War in Ukraine (February 23, 2024):
https://www.youtube.com/live/63pMjupfwDI?si=Hm6AqscY3dtIvtYb
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One of the last things Aaron Bushnell wrote was:
"Many of us like to ask ourselves, "What would I do if I was alive during Slavery? Or the Jim Crow South? Or the apartheid? What would I do if my country was committing genocide?"
The Answer is, you're doing it. Right now."
The world would be a better place if people like Aaron Bushnell lived on, fought day after day, onward into the future. The courage Aaron Bushnell possessed to do what he did, would better serve us all if he had used it day after day, for as long as possible.
Waking up to the reality of US foreign policy leaves one isolated, angry, frustrated, and confused. We all have to work on creating a path from there to here today, where we all work together to make the world a better place tomorrow.
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for February 25, 2024...
- Russian forces have cleared Avdeevka, taking over a thousand Ukrainian soldiers prisoner, illustrating the disorganized nature of Ukraine’s withdrawal;
- The US Department of Defense admits essential supporting elements for sustaining US weapon systems transferred to Ukraine were never provided, thus inhibiting the effective use of US arms by Ukrainians;
- A fighting force makes up a small percentage of an overall military service because of the large amount of support infantry require on the modern battlefield. Without these supporting elements, a fighting force cannot sustain combat especially against a better supported force;
- US military equipment is especially complex to sustain and maintain on the battlefield, a fact illustrated by US purchases of Russian helicopters for Afghan forces because US helicopters were too difficult to fly, maintain, and sustain;
- The end game for Ukraine is particularly bleak considering the attritional nature of the conflict, Russia’s ability to outproduce Ukraine and its allies, and the unrealistic objectives Ukraine and its Western sponsors are attempting to achieve;
- Attempts to focus on Russian military shortcomings while ignoring Ukrainian military shortcomings produces a fatally flawed perception of the conflict disallowing both the means and objectives of the fighting to be realistically evaluated;
References:
Telegraph - Hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers ‘captured’ in chaotic withdrawal from eastern city (February 20, 2024):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/02/20/hundreds-ukrainian-soldiers-captured-withdrawal-avdiivka/
US DoD - Press Release: Evaluation of Sustainment Strategies for the Patriot Air Defense Systems Transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces (DODIG-2024-056) and Evaluation of the DoD's Sustainment Plan for Bradley, Stryker, and Abrams Armored Weapon Systems (DODIG-2024-057) (February 20, 2024):
https://www.dodig.mil/In-..
- The US DoD published its first National Defense Industrial Strategy report, detailing major problems preventing America from mobilizing its industry to out-compete Russia and China;
- Most problems identified by the report stem from the DoD's dependence on private industry, yet private industry itself was never identified as a problem;
- The foreign and domestic policy is based on profit-driven prioritizing, creating industry that pursues profits at the cost of fulfilling that industry's role in providing goods and services for society;
- Russia and China maintain massive state-owned enterprises not only to manufacturing arms and ammunition, but also downstream suppliers for providing raw materials and goods;
References:
NEO - Fatal Flaws Undermine America’s Defense Industrial Base (February 15, 2024):
https://journal-neo.su/2024/02/15/fatal-flaws-undermine-americas-defense-industrial-base/
US Department of Defense - The National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS) (2023):
https://www.businessdefense.gov/NDIS.html
NY Times - Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say (September 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html
RFE/RL - Satellite Images Suggest Russia Is Ramping Up Production Capacity For Its War Against Ukraine (November 2023):
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ramping-up-war-production/32658857.html
RUSI - Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024 (February 13, 2024):
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024
The National Interest - MBT-70 - The German-American Super Tank That Never Came to Be (April 2021):
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/mbt-70-german-american-super-tank-never-came-be-182224
The Guardian - ‘A lot higher than we expected’: Russian arms production worries Europe’s war planners (February 15, 2024):
https://www.theguardian.com/wor..
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for February 18, 2024…
- UPDATE: Russia takes all of Avdeevka after Ukrainian forces begin fleeing crumbling defenses;
- Despite attempts to portray a change in Ukrainian military leadership as necessary to address Ukraine’s many and growing problems on the battlefield, the change reflected political motivations rather than improving strategic or tactical capabilities;
- The Western media continues to depict Ukraine’s military deficiencies as resulting from delayed Western funding, however the actual problem stems from unsolveable military industrial limits;
- The West and the US in particular continues operating from the flawed assumption that despite Russia’s advantages in quantity, the US can overcome Russian capabilities through superior innovation;
- Attempts to increase production of air defense systems and artillery munitions are falling far short of Ukraine’s battlefield requirements and further expansion will require years of additional investments not even being discussed at the moment;
- Claims that Ukraine will build up its own military industrial capacity is unrealistic considering how difficult this process is for the West under the most ideal conditions outside of a warzone;
References:
NYT - Losing Ground, Ukraine Seeks New Positions Around Avdiivka (February 17, 2024):
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/15/world/europe/ukraine-war-avdiivka-russia.html
Vox Ukraine - The Network of Russian Propaganda: What Connects Western “Experts” Promoting Narratives Beneficial to Russia (February 9, 2024):
https://voxukraine.org/en/the-network-of-russian-propaganda-what-connects-western-experts-promoting-narratives-beneficial-to-russia
Vox Ukraine - 2021-2022 Annual Report:
https://voxukraine.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/VoxUkraine-Report-for-2021-2022.pdf
BBC - Ukraine underplays role of far right in conflict (December 2014):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30414955
The Hill - The reality of neo-Nazis in Uk..
- Alexei Navalny's political activities were funded by the US government through the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) as part of an effort to repeat US-backed 2014 Ukraine regime change inside Russia itself;
- The Western media had previously (and reluctantly) revealed Navalny as far-right, racist, and xenophobic despite efforts to pass him off as a progressive pro-democracy activist;
- US government-funded polling agencies consistently found Alexei Navalny extremely unpopular in Russia with single digit approval ratings;
- After an alleged 2020 "Novichok" poisoning, Navalny's popularity "surged" to 20% as the Western media accused Moscow of being behind the incident;
- The US is now exploiting the death of Navalny to advance its anti-Russia policy while the Western media collective omits all relevant context regarding Navalny's background and US funding;
References:
NYT - Navalny’s Death Raises Tensions Between U.S. and Russia (February 16, 2024):
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/16/world/europe/biden-putin-navalny.html
CNN - Putin saw an existential threat in Navalny, the opposition leader whose name he dared not mention (February 16, 2024):
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/17/europe/putin-navalny-existential-threat-analysis-intl/index.html
Al Jazeera - Alexey Navalny: An archenemy Putin wouldn’t name and Kremlin couldn’t scare (February 16, 2024):
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/16/obit-navalny-putins-archenemy-and-anti-corruption-champion
Reuters - Putin critic Navalny's approval rating surges in wake of poisoning (October 2020):
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-politics-navalny-idUSKBN26N1Z9/
The New Atlas - CNN + Bellingcat's Latest Russian Novichok Lies | 12/16/2020 Review (December 2020):
https://youtu.be/Ma4wwo8WQic?si=n6TpcN748B2WvI8n
NED - RUSSIA: POLLING FOR DEMOCRACY, THE YURI LEVADA ANALYTICAL CENTER (September 2011):
https://www.ned.org/democracy-story/russia-polling-for-democracy-the-yuri-levada-analytical-center..
- Western analysts suggest 3D printing technology can mitigate logistical and maintenance problems for Ukrainian forces by producing spare parts on demand locally rather than depending on a supply chain stretching far beyond Ukraine;
- Seven advanced 3D printers have been transferred to Ukraine, capable of producing dozens of spare parts a day based on a library of designs for over 40 pieces of equipment including older platforms for which spare parts are no longer manufactured;
- Despite this capability, it is insufficient for maintaining the amount of equipment required for a conflict of this scale and cannot match Russia’s massive military industrial output, warehouses of spare parts, and Russia’s ability to move all of it to the front line;
- Western 3D printing technology is not unique. Russia also possesses industrial-scale 3D printers. Instead of using it to print spare parts on the front line, it is instead employing it to engineer advanced capabilities for its most sophisticated weapons;
- By leveraging 3D printing to plug holes in logistics and maintenance capabilities, Ukraine will be unable to leverage it for much more crucial roles like Russia. The transfer of 3D printing technology to Ukraine in this way represents the West taking one deficiency and transforming it into two;
References:
War on the Rocks - Hold, Build, and Strike: A Vision for Rebuilding Ukraine’s Advantage in 2024 (January 26, 2024):
https://warontherocks.com/2024/01/hold-build-and-strike-a-vision-for-rebuilding-ukraines-advantage-in-2024/
Kyiv Independent - US provides Ukraine with 3D printers for battlefield spare parts (September 16, 2023):
https://kyivindependent.com/us-official-ukraine-supplied-with-industrial-size-3d-printers-for-battlefield-spare-parts/
Forbes - Metal 3D Printers At Ukraine’s Frontlines Make Critical Spare Parts (September 20, 2023):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolynschwaar/2023/09/20/metal-3d-printers-at-ukraines-frontlines-make-critical-sp..
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for February 11, 2024…
- US artillery shell production is increasing solely because the US Army owns and controls the means of production;
- Despite the surge capacity already on hand when the decision was made to expand production, the US Army is required to build entirely new facilities to meet the production target of 80,000-100,000 155 mm shells a month;
- Even if the US meets its target by 2025, it is depending on Europe to reach the 200,000 shells a month (2.4 million/year) Ukraine is said to need on the battlefield;
- Russia currently produces 2 million rounds a year and is still expanding production;
- Russian state-owned arms industry allows it to maintain large amounts of surge capacity across all munitions, vehicles, and weapons production;
- If the US finds itself in a multi-year struggle to catch up to a nation with a smaller economy and population, it suggests attempts to match or exceed the production capacity of China with a much larger population, industrial base, and soon-to-be larger economy are unlikely to succeed;
- What the US must do to out-produce its adversaries in war, pivot from a profit to purpose-driven economy, would negate the primary motivations for the US to wage war in the first place;
References:
SITREP
Forbes - The Clock Is Ticking As Ukraine Destroys More Russian Vehicles, Faster. The Kremlin Could Run Out Of Fighting Vehicles In Six Months. (February 4, 2024):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/04/the-clock-is-ticking-as-ukraine-destroys-more-russian-vehicles-faster-the-kremlin-could-run-out-of-fighting-vehicles-in-six-months/?sh=100c65e8c5e2
Forbes - Russia Has Massed 500 Tanks For An Attack On Kupyansk. Thousands Of Ukrainian Drones Await Them. (February 3, 2024):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/03/russia-has-massed-500-tanks-for-an-attack-on-kupyansk-thousands-of-ukrainian-drones-await-them/?sh=279bef355afd
Andrew Perpetua - An Offensive?: Latest..
- The US Air Force is attempting a major reorganization in an attempt to better prepare it for a conflict with China;
- This includes reorganizing how the USAF develops and acquires new aircraft and weapons and how its air assets themselves are organized;
- Together with new strategies like “agile combat employment” (ACE) the US seeks to offset China’s growing advantages in both quantity and quality;
- USAF planners are also attempting to overcome what they call the “tyranny of distance” ahead of a conflict the US plans to fight against China along or even within Chinese borders, thousands of miles from American shores;
- The USAF and the US military in general is so busy attempting to figure out how to fight against China in Asia, that little thought has been put into whether this conflict is necessary in the first place;
References:
Global Times - US Air Force's plans to reorganize in preparation for war with China won't work (February 5, 2024):
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202402/1306719.shtml
Politico - Air Force preps for mega overhaul with an eye toward China (February 2, 2024):
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/02/air-force-command-overhaul-00139297
US State Department - U.S. Relations With Taiwan:
https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/
Wilson Center Digital Archive - Joint Communique between the United States and China (February 27, 1972):
https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/joint-communique-between-united-states-and-china
BBC - The US is quietly arming Taiwan to the teeth (November 2023):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67282107
Wall Street Journal - U.S. to Expand Troop Presence in Taiwan for Training Against China Threat (February 23, 2023):
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-expand-troop-presence-in-taiwan-for-training-against-china-threat-62198a83
The Warzone - China Is Cloning Kratos’ XQ-58A Valkyrie Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle Concept (Updated) (September 2021):
https://www.twz.com/42555/china-is-..
US Announces Transfer of Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs to Ukraine (Again)
- GLSDBs were announced in late 2022 and expected to arrive in Ukraine some time in 2023 however this announcement suggests they are only just now arriving in Ukraine;
- Russia has already claimed to have intercepted GLSDBs transferred to Ukraine before this most recent announcement;
- The Western media admits Russia has had success both jamming and intercepting similar munitions transferred to Ukraine including guided rockets fired by HIMARS and JDAM guided bombs;
- GLSDBs are manufactured by joining relatively plentiful bombs and rockets, however, the process of joining the components together limits the number of GLSDBs that can be produced at any given time;
- Like other munitions provided to Ukraine, GLSDBs will face both quantitative and qualitative limitations falling far short of Russian equivalents;
References:
Reuters - Ukraine's new 100-mile bomb from Boeing is ready, sources say (January 31, 2024):
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraines-new-100-mile-bomb-boeing-is-ready-sources-say-2024-01-30/
Reuters - Exclusive: U.S. weighs sending 100-mile strike weapon to Ukraine (November 28, 2022):
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/100-mile-strike-weapon-weighed-ukraine-arms-makers-wrestle-with-demand-sources-2022-11-28/
CNN - Russia’s jamming of US-provided rocket systems complicates Ukraine’s war effort (May 2023):
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html
Reuters - Russia intercepts five HIMARS, JDAM bomb, 37 drones over Ukraine in last 24 hours (October 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-intercepts-five-himars-jdam-bomb-37-drones-over-ukraine-last-24-hours-2023-10-01/
Business Insider - Russia is jamming 'sophisticated' US weapons being used in Ukraine, making them useless, report says (August 2023):
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-disable-sophisticated-u..
Update on US military operations in the Middle East…
- US retaliates for deadly attack on US bases in the region by targeting Iranian-linked infrastructure and formations in Iraq and Syria;
- The US base was allegedly hit by a drone and despite attempts to depict it as a “lucky hit,” it demonstrates how vulnerable US troops occupying the region have become;
- US air defenses are insufficient in terms of quantity and quality to protect US bases from a growing number of missiles and drones;
- While the US insists it is not seeking conflict in the region, its sole purpose in the region is to violently overthrow the Syrian and Iranian governments and coerce the rest of the region to advance US interests at the cost of their own interests and sovereignty;
- US Department of Defense officials have admitted that in Syria the US is deliberately withholding the nation’s own energy and agricultural resources to use economic recovery and reconstruction as “leverage” over Syria and its allies;
References:
Voice of America - US Begins Retaliation for Deadly Drone Attack on Its Soldiers (February 2, 2024):
https://www.voanews.com/a/us-begins-retaliation-for-deadly-drone-attack-on-its-soldiers-/7468958.html
New Yorker - The Redirection (2007):
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2007/03/05/the-redirection
New York Times - Behind the Sudden Death of a $1 Billion Secret C.I.A. War in Syria (2017):
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/02/world/middleeast/cia-syria-rebel-arm-train-trump.html
CSIS - Syria in the Gray Zone (October 31, 2019):
https://www.youtube.com/live/MFsFOS5Odno?si=EFUG5T6Mjw8edqSp&t=849
US Department of Defense - Dana Stroul, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East:
https://www.defense.gov/About/Biographies/Biography/Article/2539910/dana-stroul/
Popular Mechanics - A Drone Attack Devastated U.S. Troops in Their Sleep. Is This the New Normal? (January 29, 2024):
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a46573324/..
Update for the conflict in Ukraine for February 4, 2024...
- Ukraine's reported sinking of Russian missile boat distracts from Ukraine's core weaknesses rather than helps address them;
- US analysts believe Ukraine can use 2024 to "rebuild" for 2025, failing to understand Ukraine and its Western sponsors lack the ability to do this, while Russia continues expanding its manpower and military industrial output;
- US analysts share a misconception that Russia's lack of territorial gains results from a lack of offensive potential rather than a deliberate choice to degrade Ukrainian forces first, and attack second;
- Attempts to draw drones from other areas of the battlefield to compensate for Ukrainian deficiencies in artillery ammunition simply creates two deficiencies out of one;
- US analysts believe in the inherent superiority of Western military power, causing all other aspects of their analysis to diverge from reality;
References:
BBC - Ukraine 'hits Russian missile boat Ivanovets in Black Sea' (February 1, 2024):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68165523
age-in-2024/
OECD - Impacts of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine on the shipping and shipbuilding markets (November 2023):
https://www.oecd.org/ukraine-hub/policy-responses/impacts-of-russia-s-war-of-aggression-against-ukraine-on-the-shipping-and-shipbuilding-markets-4f925e43/
War on the Rocks - Hold, Build, and Strike: A Vision for Rebuilding Ukraine’[s Advantage in 2024 (January 26, 2024):
https://warontherocks.com/2024/01/hold-build-and-strike-a-vision-for-rebuilding-ukraines-advant
RAND Corporation - Extending Russia (2019):
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
Where to Find My Work:
Website: https://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/
Telegram: https://t.me/brianlovethailand
Twitter: https://twitter.com/BrianJBerletic
Odysee (YouTube alternative): https://odysee.com/@LandDestroyer:8
Rumble (YouTube alternative): https://rumble.com/c/c-1459863
Weibo: https://wei..
- Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt has been talking up Ukraine's drone crisis in a bid to promote his "White Stork" AI FPV kamikaze drone company;
- The company includes former associates of Schmidt's from Google and the "startup" community;
- While Schmidt seeks to level the playing field for Ukraine in terms of drone warfare, he appears oblivious to the fundamental cause of Ukraine and its Western supporters' disadvantages;
References:
Foreign Affairs - Ukraine Is Losing the Drone War (January 22, 2024):
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraine-losing-drone-war-eric-schmidt
Special Competitive Studies Project - What We Do:
https://www.scsp.ai/about/what-we-do/
The Economist - Russia is starting to make its superiority in electronic warfare count (November 2023):
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/23/russia-is-starting-to-make-its-superiority-in-electronic-warfare-count
Reuters - Georgia started war with Russia: EU-backed report (2009):
https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE58T4MO/
Forbes - The Countries With The Most STEM Graduates [Infographic] (2017):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2017/02/02/the-countries-with-the-most-stem-graduates-infographic/?sh=321a92e1268a
Forbes - Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt Is Working On A Secret Military Drone Project (January 9, 2024):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahemerson/2024/01/09/ex-google-ceo-eric-schmidt-is-working-on-a-secret-military-drone-project/?sh=6668ab906c6b
Forbes - Eric Schmidt’s Secret ‘White Stork’ Project Aims To Build AI Combat Drones (January 23, 2024:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahemerson/2024/01/23/eric-schmidts-secret-white-stork-project-aims-to-build-ai-combat-drones/?sh=983f59b6f5a0
Bloomberg - Kittyhawk, Larry Page’s Flying-Car Company, Will Shut Down (September 2022):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-21/kittyhawk-larry-page-s-secretive-flying-car-company-will-close
Where to Find My Work:
Website: https://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/
Telegram: ht..
- Talk has begun on the status of US troops in Iraq while rumors have circulated about a possible US withdrawal from Syria;
- While a withdrawal from either occupied nation is uncertain, there are multiple reasons why the US would withdraw merely to allow a much larger conflict the US seeks to take shape;
- US policy papers have noted a US presence in Iraq complicates the use of Israel as a proxy against Iran, implying a US withdrawal from Iraq as a prerequisite for Israeli strikes on Iran;
- The US may also withdraw from the Middle East in order to channel resources into its ongoing proxy war in Ukraine or for the confrontation it is attempting to provoke with China in the Asia-Pacific;
References:
NEO - US Withdrawal from Syria and Iraq: The Worst-Case Scenario (January 29, 2024):
https://journal-neo.su/2024/01/29/us-withdrawal-from-syria-and-iraq-the-worst-case-scenario/
Brookings Institution - Which Path to Persia? Options for a New American Strategy toward Iran (2009):
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06_iran_strategy.pdf
Forbes - Is This The Beginning Of The End For U.S. Troop Deployments In Syria And Iraq? (January 25, 2024):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2024/01/25/is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-us-troop-deployments-in-syria-and-iraq/?sh=6262bba4a6ce
CNN - US and Iraqi governments expected to start talks on future of US military presence in the country (January 25, 2024):
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/24/politics/us-military-iraq-talks-future/index.html
US Department of State - Secretary Antony J. Blinken at a Press Availability (December 2022):
https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-at-a-press-availability-27/
RAND Corporation - Extending Russia, Competing from Advantageous Ground (2019):
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
ABC News - Trump admin approves new sale of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine (October 2019):
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-admin-approves-sale-anti-t..
Update for the conflict in Ukraine for January 28, 2024…
- The collective West is grappling with critical shortages of artillery ammunition Ukraine requires to continue fighting against Russian forces;
- The Western media admits that US-European attempts to expand production will take years and still fall short of even current Russian production numbers;
- Conflicts elsewhere are placing additional strain on NATO artillery shell stockpiles;
- Western analysts and commentators are contemplating increasingly desperate measures to speed up production increases, including sacrificing quality and safety, something they’ve all recently criticized Russia for doing as it expands munition production;
- Ukrainian “activists” complain about their difficulty in selling continued Western support for Ukraine to the Western public;
- There is an attempt to portray the conflict in Ukraine as “existential” for the West, claiming that Russia will end up moving further west if it wins in Ukraine;
- This dismisses the reality surrounding the current conflict in Ukraine, the preceding decades of aggressive NATO expansion up to Russia’s borders, and NATO’s use of proxies to attack Russia on its borders;
References:
Washington Post - U.S. war plans for Ukraine don’t foresee retaking lost territory (January 26, 2024):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/26/ukraine-war-plan-biden-defense/
Defense News - Lockheed to double Patriot missile production as orders explode
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2018/07/11/lockheed-to-double-patriot-missile-production-as-orders-explode/
Breaking Defense - Raytheon to max out AMRAAM production for ‘foreseeable future,’ exec says (September 2023):
https://breakingdefense.com/2023/09/raytheon-to-max-out-amraam-production-for-foreseeable-future-exec-says/
Army Recognition - Diehl Defence ramps up production of IRIS-T missile systems (September 2023):
https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_september_2023_global..
- FPV drones transform cheap, easy-to-produce drones into precision guided weapons;
- FPV drones have several disadvantages including loss-of-signal as it begins its attack dive or encounters electronic warfare;
- AI targeting allows an operator to designate a target while still in signal line-of-sight and before entering an area defended by electronic warfare, for the AI to then automatically guide the drone to its target without any external signal;
- Russia's large military industrial base lends its an advantage in both quantity and quality over Ukraine and its Western sponsors;
References:
Shepherd - Russia claims to have developed AI-based aiming system for kamikaze drone (August 2023):
https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/landwarfareintl/russia-claims-to-have-developed-ai-based-aiming-system-for-gadfly-fpv-drone/
TASS - Russia uses AI in combat drones (November 2023):
https://tass.com/defense/1708657
Wired - Russia's Killer Drone in Ukraine Raises Fears About AI in Warfare (March 2022):
https://www.wired.com/story/ai-drones-russia-ukraine/
Washington Post - The war in Ukraine is spurring a revolution in drone warfare using AI (July 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/26/drones-ai-ukraine-war-innovation/
The Economist - Russia is starting to make its superiority in electronic warfare count (November 2023):
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/23/russia-is-starting-to-make-its-superiority-in-electronic-warfare-count
FT - Military briefing: Russia has the upper hand in electronic warfare with Ukraine (January 7, 2024):
https://www.ft.com/content/a477d3f1-8c7e-4520-83b0-572ad674c28e
Kyiv Post - Russia’s Night Drones Pose a Serious New Threat to Ukraine's Troops (December 2023):
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/25459
Kyiv Independent - Minister urges Ukrainians to create drones for army at home (January 13, 2024):
https://kyivindependent.com/digital-transformation-minister-encourages-ukrainians-to-create-drones-for-army-at-home/
F..
-US-British strikes on Yemen have predictably only escalated regional tensions;
-Yemen has been targeted for years not only by US-British backed Saudi air and missile strikes, but also a multi-year, Saudi-led ground invasion, neither of which impacted Ansar Allah's military capabilities;
- US-British strikes on Yemen have only made passage through the Red Sea more dangerous, delaying by many months the possibility of commercial shipping returning to the route;
- US policy papers have laid out the ultimate objective for the region is removing Iran as a competitor through regime change using covert action within Iran while undermining Iranian allies across the region;
- Rather than attempting to de escalate and stabilize the region, it is clear the US is determined to do exactly the opposite, ultimately hoping to draw Iran into a direct confrontation;
References:
NEO - US-British Attacks on Yemen a Portent for Wider War (January 16, 2024):
https://journal-neo.su/2024/01/16/us-british-attacks-on-yemen-a-portent-for-wider-war/
CNN - US and UK carry out strikes against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen (January 12, 2024):
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/11/politics/us-strikes-houthis-yemen/index.html
NY Times - Army Special Forces Secretly Help Saudis Combat Threat From Yemen Rebels (2018):
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/us/politics/green-berets-saudi-yemen-border-houthi.html
Guardian - ‘The Saudis couldn’t do it without us’: the UK’s true role in Yemen’s deadly war (2019):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/18/the-saudis-couldnt-do-it-without-us-the-uks-true-role-in-yemens-deadly-war
Vox - The US may still be helping Saudi Arabia in the Yemen war after all (2021):
https://www.vox.com/2021/4/27/22403579/biden-saudi-yemen-war-pentagon
Euronews Business - Red Sea trade route still months away from safety, says Maersk boss (January 12, 2024):
https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/01/12/red-sea-trade-route-still-months-away-from-safety-says-maersk-..
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for January 21, 2024…
- As Ukraine and its Western sponsors continue losing the conflict strategically, Ukraine continues conducting military operations to win public relations victories;
- Ukrainian drone strikes on St. Petersburg and a Russian oil depot inflicted no tactically or strategically significant damage;
- Such strikes have demonstratably only galvanized the Russian population further behind Moscow and are admittedly aimed at encouraging the Ukrainian population to remain invested in the conflict;
- The US government has claimed that without further financial aid, Ukraine will decisively lose the conflict, omitting the fact that even with additional financial resources, the arms and ammunition Ukraine needs does not exist to be purchased and transferred to Ukraine in the first place;
- France has urged arms manufacturers to boost output, claiming to have switched to a “war economy mode,” despite the necessary prerequisites to do so not being met and France being unable to boost output without huge investments in both money measured in billions, and time measured in years;
- The fate of a Russian A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft continues to remain at the center of Western commentary, specifically because of a lack of strategically significant developments in Ukraine’s favor on the battlefield. The fact that Western media admits the allegedly destroyed plane has already been replaced reveals how insignificant the incident is;
- The Western media continues promoting narratives of heavy Russian losses around Avdeevka, identical to narratives that preceded the fall of Bakhmut to Russian forces last year;
- While such narratives are meant to depict Russia as weak and failing, the relentless tidal wave of men and equipment would not be possible unless Russia possessed vastly superior means of raising manpower and military industrial output;
Resources:
CNBC - Drone strikes hit St. Petersburg;..
Geopolitical analysis by Brian Berletic (Tony Cartalucci)...