US update

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United States

CDC trends

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases

Official US hospitalizations

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html

Thanksgiving + 7 days is Wednesday 2nd Deccember

Estimated incidence of COVID-19 illness and hospitalization — United States, February–September, 2020

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389

Clinical Infectious Diseases, (accepted paper)

Laboratory confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is nationally notifiable

Reported case counts are recognized to be less than the true number

Methods

To estimate the cumulative incidence SARS-CoV-2 infections, symptomatic illnesses, and hospitalizations

Laboratory-confirmed case counts that were reported nationally were adjusted:

sources of under-detection based on testing practices in inpatient and outpatient settings and assay sensitivity

Results

Nationally reported cases

February 27–September 30, 2020

One of every 2.5 hospitalized infections

One of every 7.1 non-hospitalized illnesses

Applying these multipliers along with data on the prevalence of asymptomatic infection from published systematic reviews…

we estimate that:

2.4 million hospitalizations

44.8 million symptomatic illnesses

and 52.9 million total infections may have occurred in the U.S.

Conclusions

One in 8 or 13%, of total SARS-CoV-2 infections were recognized and reported through to the end of September

30th November

Cases, 13, 142, 997

Cases, x 8 = 105, 143, 977

Deaths, 256,166

CFR = 1.95

IFR = 0.25

Older Adults

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/older-adults.html

Eight out of 10 deaths I the US have been in older adults, over the age of 65