We have turned a corner relatively recently
Chris Whitty, Patrick Vallance
Full press conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e47dWP-pT_0
Government slides
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-to-accompany-coronavirus-data-briefing-21-september-2020
Transcript
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences
Droplets, aerosols, surface contacts
Hands face space
Limit the number of our contacts
Reduce contacts in closed spaces, crowds, poor ventilation
Reduce contact with infected people, isolation
Spain and France
Younger people now older as well
Cases - hospitalization – deaths
Viral genetics have changed, but still causes disease and deaths
UK
Increases in all age groups
Not just more testing
ONS data
Proportion of tests positives increasing
+ 6,000 = 70, 000 currently have infection
App data
+ 10, 391 = 96, 531
Doubling every 7 days
Mid October
Cases, + 50, 000
1 month later 200 + deaths per day
Now
Speed, action, enough
Current immunity
8% show antibodies
17% in London
3 million people
Most not protected
Geographical spread
Varies but essentially all over
Clusters have been getting bigger
Increasing everywhere
In patients
Doubling time, 7 or 8 days
Potential for hospitalisations and deaths to double many times
Seasons are against us for all respiratory viruses
6 month problem to deal with
Collective problem
No evidence the virus is milder than April
Mortality will be similar to what we have seen, slightly lower
High numbers would mean;
Direct COVID deaths
NHS overwhelmed
Other pathologies not being treated, early diagnosis
Heath effects of restrictions
If I increase my risk, I increase the risks to others
What to do
Reducing individual risk, hands face space
Isolation
Break unnecessary links between households, work and social
Science
Vaccines
Many vaccines generate an immune response
First half of next year
