Prediction markets enable you to bet on the outcomes of real-world events by buying shares for those outcomes. Share prices can be interpreted as the probability that the underlying event will happen, therefore they provide an aggregate measure of what the market's participants believe. Prediction markets have been found to provide very accurate probabilities, and there have been interesting proposals to use them for improving institutional decision-making. In this video, we'll explore all of this and more. Examples of prediction platforms are: Augur and Polymarket (on the Ethereum blockchain), predictIt, the FTX crypto exchange, and Metaculus.
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Wikipedia on prediction markets (it's pretty good): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases, by David Rothschild: https://www.jstor.org/stable/40467652
Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs? (by Robin Hanson): http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/futarchy.pdf
Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs (by Robin Hanson): https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/futarchy.html
Augur: https://augur.net/
Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/
PredictIt: https://www.predictit.org/
FTX: https://ft-x.info/
ElectionBettingOdds: https://electionbettingodds.com/
Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/
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Script by:
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Narration by Robert Miles: https://www.youtube.com/c/RobertMilesAI
