Why a Destabilized North Korea is bad for China

Rumors and varied reports on the supposed deteriorating health of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un sent observers into a frenzy Tuesday as analysts and watchers of Pyongyang tried to ascertain the whereabouts and condition of the 36-year-old dictator.

Intelligence agencies, journalists, and researchers are all trying to work out the state of play. The unexpected news—and subsequent speculation—from across the border with North Korea will have been an unwelcome surprise in Beijing, where officials are already grappling with the COVID-19 coronavirus fallout and economic collapse.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang said Tuesday that the government was aware of the reports but did not know their source, declining to comment further on the matter and providing no clarity on a situation that could destabilize Asia.

North Korea has long been a volatile but useful foreign policy tool for the Chinese. The secretive state provides a handy buffer zone to keep democratic South Korea and tens of thousands of American troops away from its border, an important enough objective for China to commit more than 1 million troops to the Korean War.

Ultimately China values stability on the Korean Peninsula, and at times has shifted from tacit support for Pyongyang to condemnation, for example when the North has tested nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Beijing backed international sanctions on the regime, though is accused of facilitating illegal workarounds.

Nonetheless, reports of Kim's imminent demise risk fomenting unwelcome instability in North Korea. With no clear succession plan, his death or incapacitation could throw a heavily armed and secretive state into chaos right on China's border. With Beijing's hands already full, that is the last thing President Xi Jinping needs.

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