Bitcoin Doubled In Price Over The Past 451 Days; What Is The Future? Aug 1, 2020
Every now and then I check the time it took for bitcoin to double
I start with today's price, Aug 1, 2020 at about 7:30 PM
Google is reporting a bitcoin price of $11,940.00
Divide by half to get $5,970
Look for that price on CoinGecko.com
May 8, 2019
Use my computer date calculator to determine how many days it took for bitcoin to double
It says 451
The price is not exactly half, so I take today's price, divide by the price on May 8, 2019 of $5,957 and get 2.004364613 rounded off and I use that number, because the price of bitcoin more than doubled since May 8, 2019
I can't use May 9, 2019 because the price hit $6,100
I get as close as I can to the half price date, without going over
Now take that over to Google Sheets and do some figures with it, on a spreadsheet
What if this trend continues?
Can we extrapolate, just for fun?
What will be the future price estimates?
In 451 days it will be October 26, 2021
If bitcoin doubles, the price will be $23,992
Bloomberg gave their price prediction of $28,000
My spreadsheet shows a lower price
By January 20, 2023 Tim Draper predicted a price of $250,000 for bitcoin and my extrapolation is showing $48,210 so this estimate of bitcoin price is less than 1/5th Tim Draper's prediction
If Tim Draper turns out to be right, my method of extrapolation is very, very, ultra conservative, isn't it?
I'm not making a prediction of the price
I'm just saying 'What if?'
What if this trend continues?
What will the future price be?
What if bitcoin doubles every 451 days as it just did over the past 451 days?
Where will the price be?
With a spreadsheet, you can take any date and add 451 days to it, so I set up a spreadsheet to do that for me, automatically, and now I have my own numbers, not price predictions, but what ifs?
I don't believe anyone knows the future
If you want to go with someone who made one accurate prediction, go ahead, but they got lucky once
It doesn't mean they will continue guessing correctly
I'm looking at the actual performance and using it to extrapolate
If a ball is thrown at you and it continues on it's parabolic journey, where will it be when you swing the bat?
You use the trajectory of the ball to try to hit it and get on base, to use the baseball analogy
I'm seeing bitcoin rise in price over the past 451 days
It doubled
What if it doubles again and again, with regularity?
Bitcoin has no such regularity, but many give it regularity with their charts
It's not going to be like that
I guarantee it
Come to my office and I'll issue the guarantee
Human emotions are involved
They are extremely unpredictable
Planets are emotionless
You can predict where they will be in the sky at night
Comets are predictable, because they obey some mathematical formulas, but bitcoin certainly doesn't obey anything
It's irrational, irregular and unpredictable
So when will the price of bitcoin hit $1 million?
I don't know
If it doubles every 451 days, on schedule then somewhere between December 29, 2027 and March 24, 2029
Do you want to bet your life on it?
I don't!
Go ahead, spin the roulette wheel and take your chances, if you're a gambler
I'm not a gambler
I'm looking at the ball that was thrown
It's coming at me and I want to hit it and get on base
I can steal second, later, but I want to get on first base
Nobody said to us on May 8, 2019 that bitcoin will double in 451 days, nobody!
If I said by June 18, 2030 bitcoin will be over $3 million, you'd think I'm McAffee
I'm not McAffee
He's vulgar in his public statements
Trying to make a big name for himself so he's invited to parties
I don't want a big name
I like my privacy
I just want to share some ideas with you, that's all
This short spreadsheet says that if bitcoin continues to double in price every 451 days the price will reach $51,737,000 on May 27, 2035 and if it does, we are all going to be dealing in satoshis, not entire bitcoins
How much will a satoshi be worth, if this estimate turns out to be correct?
About 52 cents ($0.51737)
You won't be able to buy anything that costs less
In order to make change for you, they'd have to divide bitcoin into more than 100 million pieces, but we can do that and we can go much smaller, if needed
We have a wonderful money system that can go as small as you want, but the fees are going to ruin the game
Will we have a Lightning Network by then, so you can do deals less than 52 cents?
I don't know
Bitcoin is flexible and you can add a second layer, a third, a fourth and a fifth layer on top of the protocol
By 2035, we are going to see all kinds of innovations that improve this marvelous money system, bitcoin
Many people think that altcoins are going to fade out, but I think they will have a practical use
